In The Precipice, Toby Ord argues, using estimates from volcano researchers, that the existential risk from supervolcanic eruptions this century is 1 in 10,000 [...] if the risk were this high, homo sapiens would have had to have gone through this trauma 20 times and survived at much lower levels of technological sophistication than today.
I think the “20 times” claim is incorrect, unless I’m misunderstanding you. Ord’s estimate is per century, not per year. It seems the usual estimate of how long “homo sapiens” has been around is 200,000 years. So we’d have had to face a (constant) 1 in 10,000 per year risk ~20 times, but a 1 in 10,000 per century risk only ~0.2 times.
This doesn’t detract from your other point about why Ord’s estimate may be too high, though.
Interesting post, thanks for writing it!
I think the “20 times” claim is incorrect, unless I’m misunderstanding you. Ord’s estimate is per century, not per year. It seems the usual estimate of how long “homo sapiens” has been around is 200,000 years. So we’d have had to face a (constant) 1 in 10,000 per year risk ~20 times, but a 1 in 10,000 per century risk only ~0.2 times.
This doesn’t detract from your other point about why Ord’s estimate may be too high, though.
Ah yes—that’s a good point, cheers!