In The Precipice, Toby Ord argues, using estimates from volcano researchers, that the existential risk from supervolcanic eruptions this century is 1 in 10,000 [...] if the risk were this high, homo sapiens would have had to have gone through this trauma 20 times and survived at much lower levels of technological sophistication than today.
I think the ā20 timesā claim is incorrect, unless Iām misunderstanding you. Ordās estimate is per century, not per year. It seems the usual estimate of how long āhomo sapiensā has been around is 200,000 years. So weād have had to face a (constant) 1 in 10,000 per year risk ~20 times, but a 1 in 10,000 per century risk only ~0.2 times.
This doesnāt detract from your other point about why Ordās estimate may be too high, though.
Interesting post, thanks for writing it!
I think the ā20 timesā claim is incorrect, unless Iām misunderstanding you. Ordās estimate is per century, not per year. It seems the usual estimate of how long āhomo sapiensā has been around is 200,000 years. So weād have had to face a (constant) 1 in 10,000 per year risk ~20 times, but a 1 in 10,000 per century risk only ~0.2 times.
This doesnāt detract from your other point about why Ordās estimate may be too high, though.
Ah yesāthatās a good point, cheers!