‘Tarsney’s model updates me towards thinking reducing non-extinction existential risks should be a little less of a priority than I previously thought.’ (link to full comment)
‘Tarsney seems to me to understate the likelihood that accounting for non-human animals would substantially affect the case for longtermism.’ (link)
‘The paper ignores 2 factors that could strengthen the case for longtermism—namely, possible increases in how efficiently resources are used and in what extremes of experiences can be reached.’ (link)
’I think it’d be interesting to run a sensitivity analysis on Tarsney’s model(s), and to think about the value of information we’d get from further investigation of:
how likely the future is to resemble Tarsney’s cubic growth model vs his steady model
whether there are other models that are substantially likely, whether the model structures should be changed
what the most reasonable distribution for each parameter is.′ (link)
See also Michael Aird’s comments on this Tarsney (2020) paper. His main points are:
‘Tarsney’s model updates me towards thinking reducing non-extinction existential risks should be a little less of a priority than I previously thought.’ (link to full comment)
‘Tarsney seems to me to understate the likelihood that accounting for non-human animals would substantially affect the case for longtermism.’ (link)
‘The paper ignores 2 factors that could strengthen the case for longtermism—namely, possible increases in how efficiently resources are used and in what extremes of experiences can be reached.’ (link)
‘Tarsney writes “resources committed at earlier time should have greater impact, all else being equal”. I think that this is misleading and an oversimplification. See Crucial questions about optimal timing of work and donations and other posts tagged Timing of Philanthropy.’ (link)
’I think it’d be interesting to run a sensitivity analysis on Tarsney’s model(s), and to think about the value of information we’d get from further investigation of:
how likely the future is to resemble Tarsney’s cubic growth model vs his steady model
whether there are other models that are substantially likely, whether the model structures should be changed
what the most reasonable distribution for each parameter is.′ (link)