Not an answer to your original question, but beware taking answers to the Metaculus question as reflecting when AGI will arrive, if by “AGI” you mean AI that will rapidly transform the world, or be able to perform literally every task humans perform as well as almost all humans. If you look at the resolution criteria for the question, all it requires for the answer to be yes, is that there is a model able to pass 4 specific hard benchmarks. Passing a benchmark is not the same as performing well at all aspects of an actual human office or lab job. Furthermore, none of these benchmarks actually require being able to store memories long-term and act coherently on a time scale of weeks, two of the main things current models lack. It is a highly substantial assumption that any AI which can pass the Turing test, do well on a test of subject matter knowledge, code like a top human over relatively small time scales, and put together a complicated model car can do every economically significant task, or succeed in carrying out plans long-term, or have enough commonsense and adapatibility in practice to fully replace a white-collar middle manager or a plumber.
Not that this means you shouldn’t be thinking about how to optimize your career for an age where AI can do a lot of tasks currently done by humans, or even that AGI isn’t imminent. But people using that particular Metaculus question to say “see, completely human-level or above on everything transformative AI” is coming soon, when that doesn’t really match the resolution criteria, is a pet hate of mine.
I agree on the Metaculus prompt being unclear, but the manifold market is far more clear. For the purposes of resolution:
“Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.”
That definition seems to imply a system that will permanently change the knowledge economy, but anyways, I am more interested in what I should do with my time before such a system is developed.
Not an answer to your original question, but beware taking answers to the Metaculus question as reflecting when AGI will arrive, if by “AGI” you mean AI that will rapidly transform the world, or be able to perform literally every task humans perform as well as almost all humans. If you look at the resolution criteria for the question, all it requires for the answer to be yes, is that there is a model able to pass 4 specific hard benchmarks. Passing a benchmark is not the same as performing well at all aspects of an actual human office or lab job. Furthermore, none of these benchmarks actually require being able to store memories long-term and act coherently on a time scale of weeks, two of the main things current models lack. It is a highly substantial assumption that any AI which can pass the Turing test, do well on a test of subject matter knowledge, code like a top human over relatively small time scales, and put together a complicated model car can do every economically significant task, or succeed in carrying out plans long-term, or have enough commonsense and adapatibility in practice to fully replace a white-collar middle manager or a plumber.
Not that this means you shouldn’t be thinking about how to optimize your career for an age where AI can do a lot of tasks currently done by humans, or even that AGI isn’t imminent. But people using that particular Metaculus question to say “see, completely human-level or above on everything transformative AI” is coming soon, when that doesn’t really match the resolution criteria, is a pet hate of mine.
I agree on the Metaculus prompt being unclear, but the manifold market is far more clear. For the purposes of resolution:
“Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.”
That definition seems to imply a system that will permanently change the knowledge economy, but anyways, I am more interested in what I should do with my time before such a system is developed.