Based on donations over the past few months, I estimate that each fund will receive (by default) roughly $120k per month (720K over the next six months), which will be matched at a 2:1 rate, by Open Philanthropy to give us a total of $360k/​month.
This means we expect to be unable to fund around $640k/​month of projects we believe should be funded.
This could be filled by an additional $213k in public donations each month (or $1.27M over the next six months).
On the other hand, the LTFF might still not be funding constrained if the above gap is expected to be easily filled thanks to its announcement.
On the other hand, the LTFF might still not be funding constrained if the above gap is expected to be easily filled thanks to its announcement.
I definitely hope so! On the other hand, we at least haven’t received sufficiently high donations in the last week. But of course it’s very possible/​likely that people very reasonably need to take a while to decide whether donating to us is worth it, so the situation will look less scary in the coming weeks.
Hi Anton,
Trusting what Caleb Parikh said 1 week or so ago, it looks like the LTFF is funding constrained:
On the other hand, the LTFF might still not be funding constrained if the above gap is expected to be easily filled thanks to its announcement.
I definitely hope so! On the other hand, we at least haven’t received sufficiently high donations in the last week. But of course it’s very possible/​likely that people very reasonably need to take a while to decide whether donating to us is worth it, so the situation will look less scary in the coming weeks.