Sounds like we roughly agree on actions, even if not beliefs (I’m less sold on fast / discontinuous takeoff than you are).
As a minor note, to keep incentives good, you could pay evaluators / auditors based on how much performance they are able to elicit. You could even require that models be evaluated by at least three auditors, and split up payment between them based on their relative performances. In general it feels like there a huge space of possibilities that has barely been explored.
Sounds like we roughly agree on actions, even if not beliefs (I’m less sold on fast / discontinuous takeoff than you are).
As a minor note, to keep incentives good, you could pay evaluators / auditors based on how much performance they are able to elicit. You could even require that models be evaluated by at least three auditors, and split up payment between them based on their relative performances. In general it feels like there a huge space of possibilities that has barely been explored.