I think these don’t bite nearly as hard for conditional pauses, since they occur in the future when progress will be slower
Your footnote is about compute scaling, so presumably you think that’s a major factor for AI progress, and why future progress will be slower. The main consideration pointing the other direction (imo) is automated researchers speeding things up a lot. I guess you think we don’t get huge speedups here until after the conditional pause triggers are hit (in terms of when various capabilities emerge)? If we do have the capabilities for automated researchers, and a pause locks these up, that’s still pretty massive (capability) overhang territory.
Your footnote is about compute scaling, so presumably you think that’s a major factor for AI progress, and why future progress will be slower. The main consideration pointing the other direction (imo) is automated researchers speeding things up a lot. I guess you think we don’t get huge speedups here until after the conditional pause triggers are hit (in terms of when various capabilities emerge)? If we do have the capabilities for automated researchers, and a pause locks these up, that’s still pretty massive (capability) overhang territory.
Yeah, unless we get a lot better at alignment, the conditional pause should hit well before we create automated researchers.