Taking your numbers at face value, and assuming that people have on average 40 years of life ahead of them (Google suggests median age is 30 and typical lifespan is 70-80), the pause gives an expected extra 2.75 years of life during the pause (delaying 55% chance of doom by 5 years) while removing an expected extra 2.1 years of life (7% of 30) later on. This looks like a win on current-people-only views, but it does seem sensitive to the numbers.
I’m not super sold on the numbers. Removing the full 55% is effectively assuming that the pause definitely happens and is effective—it neglects the possibility that advocacy succeeds enough to have the negative effects, but still fails to lead to a meaningful pause. I’m not sure how much probability I assign to that scenario but it’s not negligible, and it might be more than I assign to “advocacy succeeds and effective pause happens”.
It sounds like you don’t buy (1) at all.
I’d say it’s more like “I don’t see why we should believe (1) currently”. It could still be true. Maybe all the other methods really can’t work for some reason I’m not seeing, and that reason is overcome by public advocacy.
Oops, sorry for the misunderstanding.
Taking your numbers at face value, and assuming that people have on average 40 years of life ahead of them (Google suggests median age is 30 and typical lifespan is 70-80), the pause gives an expected extra 2.75 years of life during the pause (delaying 55% chance of doom by 5 years) while removing an expected extra 2.1 years of life (7% of 30) later on. This looks like a win on current-people-only views, but it does seem sensitive to the numbers.
I’m not super sold on the numbers. Removing the full 55% is effectively assuming that the pause definitely happens and is effective—it neglects the possibility that advocacy succeeds enough to have the negative effects, but still fails to lead to a meaningful pause. I’m not sure how much probability I assign to that scenario but it’s not negligible, and it might be more than I assign to “advocacy succeeds and effective pause happens”.
I’d say it’s more like “I don’t see why we should believe (1) currently”. It could still be true. Maybe all the other methods really can’t work for some reason I’m not seeing, and that reason is overcome by public advocacy.