Nate says that he had some evidence that Sam was good in some way (good intent) and some evidence that Sam was bad in some ways (bad means). The correct conclusion in this case (probably?) is that Sam was part good part bad. But Nate mistakenly though of this as some chance Sam is totally good and some chance totally bad.
I’m not saying that what you (Duncan) points to is a real mistake that some people does. But I don’t see it is this case.
I think Nate is saying that the question was actually “will he cause harm on his way to doing good” or “will he do only good” and the correct conclusion was in fact “he will cause harm in his way to doing good” and that this was a binary fact about the universe.
But tangled in that is that at the time he thought that the question was “is he good” vs “is he bad” or something. And on this he did the false average and shrug thing. So Duncan’s answer is quite relevant imo.
Isn’t that the opposite of what Nate said?
Nate says that he had some evidence that Sam was good in some way (good intent) and some evidence that Sam was bad in some ways (bad means). The correct conclusion in this case (probably?) is that Sam was part good part bad. But Nate mistakenly though of this as some chance Sam is totally good and some chance totally bad.
I’m not saying that what you (Duncan) points to is a real mistake that some people does. But I don’t see it is this case.
Note that I specifically wanted to hit the failure mode where there is, in reality, a clear-cut binary (e.g. totally innocent or totally guilty).
But yeah, correct that this is not what was going on with SBF or Nate’s assessments. More of a “this made me think of that,” I guess.
I think that “this made me think of that” is a valid reason for a comment.
I’m currently not sur if my comment on your comment is stupid nit picking or relevant clarification.
I think Nate is saying that the question was actually “will he cause harm on his way to doing good” or “will he do only good” and the correct conclusion was in fact “he will cause harm in his way to doing good” and that this was a binary fact about the universe.
But tangled in that is that at the time he thought that the question was “is he good” vs “is he bad” or something. And on this he did the false average and shrug thing. So Duncan’s answer is quite relevant imo.