How sure are you on #1? I want to organize US folks to contact their representatives and senators, but want to be specific with the ask. Is it 1) waive the pause or 2) just ensure it comes back at the end of the pause? This link makes me believe that the pause itself is stopping PEPFAR-related work, but it sounds like you think NGOs will have funding to make it through the next month?
My understanding is that #1 is false – PEPFAR funding is authorized by congress, the executive can’t (legally) unilaterally cut it off. However, their funding is currently paused as part of a broader pause on all US foreign aid. Organizing people to call their senators and representatives (especially if these are Republicans) is a great thing to do right now – the ask is to exempt PEPFAR from the foreign aid pause. You might also tell them to say that PEPFAR is a program initiated by a Republican president which has enjoyed widespread bipartisan support for 25 years.
I think this is an OK ask, but the bigger long term issue is that PEPFAR stays funded after the review—that seems to me both a bigger deal and perhaps more tractable than “unpausing” right now. It seems pretty unlikely that decision would be reversed but I don’t know much about the US political system or Trump’s way of operating
It would not be legal for USAID to cancel funding for PEPFAR after the reverse! Their funding comes from congress, executive agencies don’t have the power to do that. It still might happen – such are the times – but it would be definitely flagrantly illegal.
I think we are in uncharted territory here. It’s true that Congress has the power of the purse. But Trump’s pick for Office of Management and Budget Director (Russell Vought) supports impoundment—unilateral action taken by the exectuve branch to delay or cancel appropriations enacted into law.
When asked about Trump’s funding freeze the other day, Rep. Tom Cole, Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, said “Appropriations is not a law, it’s the directive of Congress.”
Some Republican members of Congress may not push back on illegal actions without pressure from their constituents.
Ok thanks, that matches my prior belief. However, I don’t know if receiving organizations have the funding runway to keep programs running during the pause. Do we have good (back of the envelope) calculations about the effects of the full 90 day pause (even if it is reinstated)?
I really doubt we have the info yet even for a BOTEC. The situation will vary wildly from org to org and country to country. The best place people to comment here might be staff in USAID conduits like Chemonics and ABT associates, who would know the financial situation at scale for USAID funded orgs in low income countries.
Many implementing partners will not be able to make it the full 90 days. Several are under a communications gag order as part of the stop work order and can’t speak freely about the impacts. This Devex article quotes heads of NGOs (who spoke under condition of anonymity to reduce the risk of retribution): “I don’t think anyone can survive for 90 days”: Aid’s grim new reality (1/30/25).
Almost every contractor is already furloughing or laying off staff. On 1/31/25, The CEO of DT Global said that most firms are furloughing +80% of their staff with up to 3,000 in the DC area losing jobs by next week.
Those who have announced furloughs include:
Chemonics (100% of global health division)
DT global
MSH (HQ staff on leave 1-2 weeks, layoff imminent)
Those who have announced layoffs include:
Credence (95% of staff—this is where the majority of the Institutional Support Contractors (ISCs) who staffed the Global Health Bureau worked)
You’re right that the funding has stopped, although there will be a bunch of dedicated money in foreign accounts which will keep paying many people. There will be chaos though. For example we have 3 nursing staff under a contract paid by USAID and I’d be very surprised if they just don’t get paid now (I’ll tell you in a week).
What I mean by 1 (sorry I phrased it wrong at first, is that HIV meds in Uganda are still available and probably in other supported countries for the next few months. Its only after the pause that the shit will really hit the fan if USAID decides to permanently stop funding.
My ask would be to ensure PEPFAR funding continues after the pause.
I agree that a permanent stop is worse. Thanks for clarifying the situation during the pause; that sounds reassuring. Please keep the EA community updated!
How sure are you on #1? I want to organize US folks to contact their representatives and senators, but want to be specific with the ask. Is it 1) waive the pause or 2) just ensure it comes back at the end of the pause? This link makes me believe that the pause itself is stopping PEPFAR-related work, but it sounds like you think NGOs will have funding to make it through the next month?
My understanding is that #1 is false – PEPFAR funding is authorized by congress, the executive can’t (legally) unilaterally cut it off. However, their funding is currently paused as part of a broader pause on all US foreign aid. Organizing people to call their senators and representatives (especially if these are Republicans) is a great thing to do right now – the ask is to exempt PEPFAR from the foreign aid pause. You might also tell them to say that PEPFAR is a program initiated by a Republican president which has enjoyed widespread bipartisan support for 25 years.
I think this is an OK ask, but the bigger long term issue is that PEPFAR stays funded after the review—that seems to me both a bigger deal and perhaps more tractable than “unpausing” right now. It seems pretty unlikely that decision would be reversed but I don’t know much about the US political system or Trump’s way of operating
It would not be legal for USAID to cancel funding for PEPFAR after the reverse! Their funding comes from congress, executive agencies don’t have the power to do that. It still might happen – such are the times – but it would be definitely flagrantly illegal.
Sorry I wasn’t talking specifics of agencies, I just meant congress cutting their funding, will edit thanks!
I think we are in uncharted territory here. It’s true that Congress has the power of the purse. But Trump’s pick for Office of Management and Budget Director (Russell Vought) supports impoundment—unilateral action taken by the exectuve branch to delay or cancel appropriations enacted into law.
When asked about Trump’s funding freeze the other day, Rep. Tom Cole, Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, said “Appropriations is not a law, it’s the directive of Congress.”
Some Republican members of Congress may not push back on illegal actions without pressure from their constituents.
Ok thanks, that matches my prior belief. However, I don’t know if receiving organizations have the funding runway to keep programs running during the pause. Do we have good (back of the envelope) calculations about the effects of the full 90 day pause (even if it is reinstated)?
I really doubt we have the info yet even for a BOTEC. The situation will vary wildly from org to org and country to country. The best place people to comment here might be staff in USAID conduits like Chemonics and ABT associates, who would know the financial situation at scale for USAID funded orgs in low income countries.
Thanks for the pointers!
Many implementing partners will not be able to make it the full 90 days. Several are under a communications gag order as part of the stop work order and can’t speak freely about the impacts. This Devex article quotes heads of NGOs (who spoke under condition of anonymity to reduce the risk of retribution): “I don’t think anyone can survive for 90 days”: Aid’s grim new reality (1/30/25).
Almost every contractor is already furloughing or laying off staff. On 1/31/25, The CEO of DT Global said that most firms are furloughing +80% of their staff with up to 3,000 in the DC area losing jobs by next week.
Those who have announced furloughs include:
Chemonics (100% of global health division)
DT global
MSH (HQ staff on leave 1-2 weeks, layoff imminent)
Those who have announced layoffs include:
Credence (95% of staff—this is where the majority of the Institutional Support Contractors (ISCs) who staffed the Global Health Bureau worked)
Jefferson consulting (100% of ISCs)
ABT associates
FHI
Jhpiego
Feed the Children
You’re right that the funding has stopped, although there will be a bunch of dedicated money in foreign accounts which will keep paying many people. There will be chaos though. For example we have 3 nursing staff under a contract paid by USAID and I’d be very surprised if they just don’t get paid now (I’ll tell you in a week).
What I mean by 1 (sorry I phrased it wrong at first, is that HIV meds in Uganda are still available and probably in other supported countries for the next few months. Its only after the pause that the shit will really hit the fan if USAID decides to permanently stop funding.
My ask would be to ensure PEPFAR funding continues after the pause.
I agree that a permanent stop is worse. Thanks for clarifying the situation during the pause; that sounds reassuring. Please keep the EA community updated!