To throw some numbers in here, point no2 would need for a lot of countries to all decide it’s not worth it to fill the funding gap even a little. Let’s say there are 50 countries that could (I’d estimate half of them to be in Europe), and they decide not to fund with probability 1−p.
The probability that they all decide not too fund is then (1−p)50. If p is something like half a percent, there’s a 78% risk of no country filling the funding gap. If all three steps have 78% probability then yeah, we do approach 50% of them all happening.
To throw some numbers in here, point no2 would need for a lot of countries to all decide it’s not worth it to fill the funding gap even a little. Let’s say there are 50 countries that could (I’d estimate half of them to be in Europe), and they decide not to fund with probability 1−p.
The probability that they all decide not too fund is then (1−p)50. If p is something like half a percent, there’s a 78% risk of no country filling the funding gap. If all three steps have 78% probability then yeah, we do approach 50% of them all happening.