Wow that’s interesting! I have no inside information but would have guessed like 70-80 percent chance that funding for HIV meds would continue but maybe I’m way off the mark
To throw some numbers in here, point no2 would need for a lot of countries to all decide it’s not worth it to fill the funding gap even a little. Let’s say there are 50 countries that could (I’d estimate half of them to be in Europe), and they decide not to fund with probability 1−p.
The probability that they all decide not too fund is then (1−p)50. If p is something like half a percent, there’s a 78% risk of no country filling the funding gap. If all three steps have 78% probability then yeah, we do approach 50% of them all happening.
Hmm, I guess none of those happening seems decently likely to me—around 50% probability.
Wow that’s interesting! I have no inside information but would have guessed like 70-80 percent chance that funding for HIV meds would continue but maybe I’m way off the mark
To throw some numbers in here, point no2 would need for a lot of countries to all decide it’s not worth it to fill the funding gap even a little. Let’s say there are 50 countries that could (I’d estimate half of them to be in Europe), and they decide not to fund with probability 1−p.
The probability that they all decide not too fund is then (1−p)50. If p is something like half a percent, there’s a 78% risk of no country filling the funding gap. If all three steps have 78% probability then yeah, we do approach 50% of them all happening.