That sort of analysis is what you get for constant non-vanishing rates over time. But most of the long-term EV comes from histories where you have a period of elevated risk and the potential to get it down to stably very low levels, i.e. a ‘time of perils,’ which is the actual view Ord argues for in his book. And with that shape the value of risk reduction is ~ proportional to the amount of risk you reduce in the time of perils. I guess this comment you’re responding to might be just talking about the constant risk case?
Yeah this is just about the constant risk case, I probably should have referred to it not covering time of perils explicitly, although same mechanism with neglectedness should still apply.
That sort of analysis is what you get for constant non-vanishing rates over time. But most of the long-term EV comes from histories where you have a period of elevated risk and the potential to get it down to stably very low levels, i.e. a ‘time of perils,’ which is the actual view Ord argues for in his book. And with that shape the value of risk reduction is ~ proportional to the amount of risk you reduce in the time of perils. I guess this comment you’re responding to might be just talking about the constant risk case?
Yeah this is just about the constant risk case, I probably should have referred to it not covering time of perils explicitly, although same mechanism with neglectedness should still apply.