Yeah, I wondered what threshold to set things at -- $10m is a pretty easy bar for some of these areas, since of course some of my listed cause areas are more niche / fringe than others. I figure that for the highest-probability markets, where $10m is considered all but certain, maybe I can follow up with a market asking about a $50m or $100m threshold.
I agree that $10m isn’t “mainstream” in the sense of joining the pantheon alongside biosecurity, AI safety, farmed animal welfare, etc. But it would still be a big deal to me if, say, OpenPhil doubled their grantmaking to “land use” and split the money equally between YIMBYism and Georgism. Or if mitigating stable totalitarianism risk got as much support as “progress studies”-type stuff. $10m of grants towards studying grabby aliens or the simulation hypothesis or etc would definitely be surprising!
Yeah, I wondered what threshold to set things at -- $10m is a pretty easy bar for some of these areas, since of course some of my listed cause areas are more niche / fringe than others. I figure that for the highest-probability markets, where $10m is considered all but certain, maybe I can follow up with a market asking about a $50m or $100m threshold.
I agree that $10m isn’t “mainstream” in the sense of joining the pantheon alongside biosecurity, AI safety, farmed animal welfare, etc. But it would still be a big deal to me if, say, OpenPhil doubled their grantmaking to “land use” and split the money equally between YIMBYism and Georgism. Or if mitigating stable totalitarianism risk got as much support as “progress studies”-type stuff. $10m of grants towards studying grabby aliens or the simulation hypothesis or etc would definitely be surprising!