Not an answer, but I’m struck by the (probably correct) presumption that people will still see the “right” answer as bednets. It’s not just a matter of optics: temporary emergencies (like the coming famines) seem very likely to offer the most cost-effective interventions, conditional on not being neglected. The reason is that 1) in the absence of the emergency, people would otherwise live long and healthy lives, 2) temporary emergencies often cost less to address than systemic issues. This is why during the height of India’s COVID-induced oxygen shortages, oxygen interventions were (arguably) more cost-effective than GiveWell top recommendations, because most people who could be saved by an oxygen tank would have lived longer lives otherwise. So people should definitely not discount famine relief ex-ante as being less cost-effective.
I’m not sure it’s actually the case that interventions in temporary emergencies are “very likely” more cost-effective. Emergencies often lead to an influx of funds that local organizations struggle to absorb, and it’s difficult to allocate funds efficiently. This GiveWell blog on the topic is somewhat dated, but I think the main points still stand.
It’s hard to predict exactly where and when the urgent need happens. There’s many regions and countries that will suffer from famine. Their degree of suffering and need is uncertain and exquisitely dependent on local factors, so it’s easy to misallocate aid (compared to a more longterm, chronic problem that can be approached more slowly).
Timing and limited window of need limits the “envelope” of raw cost effectiveness. By definition (but sadly many are sort of ongoing) emergencies last for only a short time. Because of the investment and planning required, it’s not possible to create a very cost effective aid infrastructure in a short time, and even if you did, ultimately much of this investment will be wasted because of the limited duration.
So these limit “raw cost effectiveness”, maybe by a large factor.
Another issue is that interventions can be miscarried with negative effects. One example is dumping a lot of food in a way that destroys local farmers.
These are theoretical considerations about acting in emergencies. This isn’t an argument against food aid or mean that they are less effective than bed nets.
I don’t think it’s normally useful to preemptively direct aid because of the predictability issues you point out (coming famines being an exception). My point is more that there is a large value to quickly reacting to emergencies that we will miss if we only focus on systemic issues.
Aid infrastructure costs are a valid point, and that pushes the limit of how useful my point is as an abstract claim. I imagine that in many emergencies, a sufficiently effective infrastructure already exists and can be augmented if people put in a lot of effort (again leaning on the India COVID emergency example). But that’s just my imagination and could definitely be wrong.
Sure, bednets was just a standin for systemic issues (including malnutrition). I think COVID was an outlier in EA responsiveness to a current crisis, and the more longstanding conventional wisdom is that emergencies are usually not neglected or tractable enough to be worth spending on compared to systemic issues. Doing Good Better definitely made that argument about the inefficacy of disaster relief.
Not an answer, but I’m struck by the (probably correct) presumption that people will still see the “right” answer as bednets. It’s not just a matter of optics: temporary emergencies (like the coming famines) seem very likely to offer the most cost-effective interventions, conditional on not being neglected. The reason is that 1) in the absence of the emergency, people would otherwise live long and healthy lives, 2) temporary emergencies often cost less to address than systemic issues. This is why during the height of India’s COVID-induced oxygen shortages, oxygen interventions were (arguably) more cost-effective than GiveWell top recommendations, because most people who could be saved by an oxygen tank would have lived longer lives otherwise. So people should definitely not discount famine relief ex-ante as being less cost-effective.
I’m not sure it’s actually the case that interventions in temporary emergencies are “very likely” more cost-effective. Emergencies often lead to an influx of funds that local organizations struggle to absorb, and it’s difficult to allocate funds efficiently. This GiveWell blog on the topic is somewhat dated, but I think the main points still stand.
It seems like there are some considerations:
It’s hard to predict exactly where and when the urgent need happens. There’s many regions and countries that will suffer from famine. Their degree of suffering and need is uncertain and exquisitely dependent on local factors, so it’s easy to misallocate aid (compared to a more longterm, chronic problem that can be approached more slowly).
Timing and limited window of need limits the “envelope” of raw cost effectiveness. By definition (but sadly many are sort of ongoing) emergencies last for only a short time. Because of the investment and planning required, it’s not possible to create a very cost effective aid infrastructure in a short time, and even if you did, ultimately much of this investment will be wasted because of the limited duration.
So these limit “raw cost effectiveness”, maybe by a large factor.
Another issue is that interventions can be miscarried with negative effects. One example is dumping a lot of food in a way that destroys local farmers.
These are theoretical considerations about acting in emergencies. This isn’t an argument against food aid or mean that they are less effective than bed nets.
I don’t think it’s normally useful to preemptively direct aid because of the predictability issues you point out (coming famines being an exception). My point is more that there is a large value to quickly reacting to emergencies that we will miss if we only focus on systemic issues.
Aid infrastructure costs are a valid point, and that pushes the limit of how useful my point is as an abstract claim. I imagine that in many emergencies, a sufficiently effective infrastructure already exists and can be augmented if people put in a lot of effort (again leaning on the India COVID emergency example). But that’s just my imagination and could definitely be wrong.
I don’t think people see the “right” answer as bednets even today.
GiveWell maximum impact fund and the very similar EA global development fund seem to me to be more recommended choices, in part because of time-sensitive opportunities like you mention ( e.g. grants on covid-19 in 2020 )
As mentioned in another comment, the maximum impact fund is also funding malnutrition treatment
Sure, bednets was just a standin for systemic issues (including malnutrition). I think COVID was an outlier in EA responsiveness to a current crisis, and the more longstanding conventional wisdom is that emergencies are usually not neglected or tractable enough to be worth spending on compared to systemic issues. Doing Good Better definitely made that argument about the inefficacy of disaster relief.