If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2029, as reported by FRED, is higher than 8 %, I donate 10 k$ to an organisation or fund of your choice in January 2030.
Otherwise, you donate 5 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in January 2030.
No bet. I don’t have a strong view on short timelines or unemployment. We may find a bet about something else; here are some beliefs
my or Linch’s position vs yours on probability of extinction from nuclear war (I’d put $2 against your $98 that you ever update upwards by 50:1 on extinction by nuclear war by 2050, but no more for obvious reasons)
>25% that global energy consumption will increase by 25% year over year some year before 2035 (30% is the AI expert median, superforecaster median is <1%), maybe more
probably >50% that a benchmark by Mechanize meant to measure economic value, if converted to time horizon, will double twice in the first 16 months (I’m not aware of one existing yet)
probably >50% that AIs will outperform humans at forecasting geopolitical events by 2035, as long as the humans can’t read AI analyses, though this seems hard to operationalize
Thanks for the suggestions, Thomas! Would you like to make the following bet?
If the global energy consumption as reported by Our World in Data (OWID) increases by more than 25 % from year Y to Y + 1, for any Y ⇐ 2033 (such that the maximum Y + 1 is 2034, before 2035), I donate 12 k$ to an organisation or fund of your choice in July 2035 (OWID updates their data in June).
Otherwise, you donate 4 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in July 2035.
Your expected gain is more than 0 (= (0.25*12 - (1 − 0.25)*4)*10^3), but sufficiently so? You said “>25% [probability of you winning the bet above]”, and “maybe more [than an annual increase of 25 %]”.
This is not an official proposal. I would like to think about it some more, and then formalise the bet with a post.
I perceive it as +EV to me but I feel like I’m not the best buyer of short timelines. I would maybe do even odds on before 2045 for smaller amounts, which is still good for you if you think the yearly chance won’t increase much. Otherwise maybe you should seek a bet with someone like Eli Lifland. The reason I’m not inclined to make large bets is that the markets would probably give better odds for something that unlikely, eg options that pay out with very high real interest rates; whereas a few hundred dollars is enough to generate good EA forum discussion.
Thanks, Thomas. @elifland, would you like to make the bet I mentioned above (you should expect to gain money if you think your probability of winning is higher than 25 %)?
If the global energy consumption as reported by Our World in Data (OWID) increases by more than 25 % from year Y to Y + 1, for any Y ⇐ 2033 (such that the maximum Y + 1 is 2034, before 2035), I donate 12 k$ to an organisation or fund of your choice in July 2035 (OWID updates their data in June).
Otherwise, you donate 4 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in July 2035.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Thomas!
Would you like to make the following bet?
If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2029, as reported by FRED, is higher than 8 %, I donate 10 k$ to an organisation or fund of your choice in January 2030.
Otherwise, you donate 5 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in January 2030.
No bet. I don’t have a strong view on short timelines or unemployment. We may find a bet about something else; here are some beliefs
my or Linch’s position vs yours on probability of extinction from nuclear war (I’d put $2 against your $98 that you ever update upwards by 50:1 on extinction by nuclear war by 2050, but no more for obvious reasons)
>25% that global energy consumption will increase by 25% year over year some year before 2035 (30% is the AI expert median, superforecaster median is <1%), maybe more
probably >50% that a benchmark by Mechanize meant to measure economic value, if converted to time horizon, will double twice in the first 16 months (I’m not aware of one existing yet)
probably >50% that AIs will outperform humans at forecasting geopolitical events by 2035, as long as the humans can’t read AI analyses, though this seems hard to operationalize
Thanks for the suggestions, Thomas! Would you like to make the following bet?
If the global energy consumption as reported by Our World in Data (OWID) increases by more than 25 % from year Y to Y + 1, for any Y ⇐ 2033 (such that the maximum Y + 1 is 2034, before 2035), I donate 12 k$ to an organisation or fund of your choice in July 2035 (OWID updates their data in June).
Otherwise, you donate 4 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in July 2035.
Your expected gain is more than 0 (= (0.25*12 - (1 − 0.25)*4)*10^3), but sufficiently so? You said “>25% [probability of you winning the bet above]”, and “maybe more [than an annual increase of 25 %]”.
This is not an official proposal. I would like to think about it some more, and then formalise the bet with a post.
I perceive it as +EV to me but I feel like I’m not the best buyer of short timelines. I would maybe do even odds on before 2045 for smaller amounts, which is still good for you if you think the yearly chance won’t increase much. Otherwise maybe you should seek a bet with someone like Eli Lifland. The reason I’m not inclined to make large bets is that the markets would probably give better odds for something that unlikely, eg options that pay out with very high real interest rates; whereas a few hundred dollars is enough to generate good EA forum discussion.
Thanks, Thomas. @elifland, would you like to make the bet I mentioned above (you should expect to gain money if you think your probability of winning is higher than 25 %)?