Supervolcano doom probabilities are more resilient because the chain of causation is shorter and we have a natural history track record to back up some of the key points in the chain. But the difference are a matter of degree, not kind. It is very much not the case that we’ve had a long-term track record of human civilizations that died to supervolcanoes to draw from; almost every claim about the probability of human extinction is ultimately a claim about (hopefully improving) models, not a sample of long-run means.
What.
Supervolcano doom probabilities are more resilient because the chain of causation is shorter and we have a natural history track record to back up some of the key points in the chain. But the difference are a matter of degree, not kind. It is very much not the case that we’ve had a long-term track record of human civilizations that died to supervolcanoes to draw from; almost every claim about the probability of human extinction is ultimately a claim about (hopefully improving) models, not a sample of long-run means.
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