I have different understanding of moisture greenhouse based on what I’ve read. You said (oversimplifing) that the threshold for moisture greenhouse is 67C and the main risk from it is ocean evaporation.
But in my understanding 67 C is the level of moisture greenhouse climate. The climate according to some models will be stable on this level. 67 C mean temperature seems to almost lethal to humans but some people could survive on high mountains.
However, the threshold to moisture greenhouse, that is the tipping point after which the transition to the next meta-stable condition is inevitable, could be much less than at 67C and could be after just 10 C warming—you discussed this and different authors who wrote about that, but it contradicts the word “threshold” you used about moisture greenhouse.
Transition to next meta-stable climate takes according to the article about water worlds like 4-40 years.
As a result the whole catastrophic scenario of moisture greenhouse moved away from now, but it could happen in next 100 years and Ord’s estimation is justified.
Thanks for this. Someone else raised some issues with the moist greenhouse bit, and I need to revise. I still think the Ord estimate is too high, but I think the discussion in the report could be crisper. I’ll revert back once I’ve made changes
Hi!
I have different understanding of moisture greenhouse based on what I’ve read. You said (oversimplifing) that the threshold for moisture greenhouse is 67C and the main risk from it is ocean evaporation.
But in my understanding 67 C is the level of moisture greenhouse climate. The climate according to some models will be stable on this level. 67 C mean temperature seems to almost lethal to humans but some people could survive on high mountains.
However, the threshold to moisture greenhouse, that is the tipping point after which the transition to the next meta-stable condition is inevitable, could be much less than at 67C and could be after just 10 C warming—you discussed this and different authors who wrote about that, but it contradicts the word “threshold” you used about moisture greenhouse.
Transition to next meta-stable climate takes according to the article about water worlds like 4-40 years.
As a result the whole catastrophic scenario of moisture greenhouse moved away from now, but it could happen in next 100 years and Ord’s estimation is justified.
Thanks for this. Someone else raised some issues with the moist greenhouse bit, and I need to revise. I still think the Ord estimate is too high, but I think the discussion in the report could be crisper. I’ll revert back once I’ve made changes
I am going to have a post about the risks of runaway global warming soon.
here https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bdSpaB9xj67FPiewN/a-pin-and-a-balloon-anthropic-fragility-increases-chances-of