So sorry for the lateness of this reply, I have been super busy, and this reply will also only be short as I ma very busy. It would be good to organise a meeting to chat about this at some point if your interested.
On cascading risks, I tink a good recent discussion of cascading risk is found in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25021-8 . A plausible causal story for how climate change leads to a cascade may be as follows. This is obviously flawed and incomplete and clearly needs more study:
To respond to growing threats from climate change, adaptation measures (often technological) will be put in place. However, these adaptation measures, such as physical defences, are often very fragile. Whilst it is possible agricultural production increases, this would also likely be due to adaptation measures, with new things introduced likely to be less resilient due to lack of experience. Moreover, as certain regions get agriculture more badly hit, it is possible you see a few increasing agricultural hubs as those places less effected by climate change/could adapt quicker. This further increases vulnerability
One or a number of critical nodes in this system are hit by a hazard, either one made more likely by climate change, or by another hazard. Sychrnonous failure causes diversion of resources to these areas, and the economic shock makes it harder to sustain adaptation infrastructure, which may then start to fail
Climate impacts cause increased civil unrest. This causes greater economic and political insecurity, making greater diversion of resources away from climate adaptation and towards combating the symptomns of this. The resources exerted can’t match with the pressures on them, both environmental, climatic, social, political, economic. A near complete collapse of a mid-sized economy ensues, with global reprucussions
Meanwhile, climate change has made an engineered pandemic more likely by increasing the number of omnicidal actors. One of these engineered pandemics occur killing 1% of the worlds population, sychronous with a major drought, causing global economic collapse. In response to the drought, a water war between mid-sized powers ensues, leading to the involvement of major powers. Sanctions and embargoes between the powers lead to further economic damage. This is combined by significant food shortages from the drought, and socio-economic damage from the pandemic.
Political tensions rise in India, leading to mass protests. The failure of the Indian government to relieve a Muslim majority region of the famine causes tensions, a police massacre causes this to go into outright rebellion. The Indian government collapses, with major global economic consequences.
Climate impacts continue to scale across the world, with the economic damage from the famine, pandemic and collapse of the Indian government spreading. In the subsequent economic collapse, a major economy defaults on its debts, leading to further ewconomic turmoil. Civil unrest breaks out in another major economy (say Germany), once again causing economic collapse. The new Indian government, crippled and weakened and still under pressure from the civil war, promises to defend its water resources at all costs, however China, also suffering from a drought, cuts off the source of Brahmaputra. A tactical nuclear weapon is set off. Whilst this doesn’t lead to global nuclear war, in the aftermath of this, markets collapse
With a collapsing global economy and mounting climate damages, adaptation measures cannot be meaningfully carried out, as maintences can’t be afforded. This causes more and more damage.
This is the example of a cascade. I didn’t take it all the way to collapse/ extinction, but I think you could probably carry it on yourself. This is just A scenario I just came up with. Its probably not the most plausible. But there are thousands of such scenarios, each which climate change is a key factor in causing, interacting in different ways. this is what I mean by cascade.
On the seperate point of your indirect vs direct framing, it seems like my issues with it are two fold. I tend to think indirect risk is just so much larger a subset of things than direct risk (involves many of the causes of hazards, as well as I assume all exposures and vulnerabilities?), and yet I don’t think your treatment of it gives it this necessary depth. So maybe in theory your framework is well defined, but in practice the category of indirect risk is like “the rest” and so doesn’t seem to give a useful structure for defining what these key impacts are. I think, even if unintentional, the rhetoric of employing such a device privelages direct risks hugely, which I tend to think leads nearly inevitably to your conclusion due to this privelaging.
When you say you expected other criticisms, I can understand why you may be frustrated with my focus on the meta-issues. But I broadly don’t have much of a problem with what you say, and certainly don’t on any areas outside my area of expertise. Its what you don’t say, and the methodology you have used that lets you get there, that worries me. Thats why I have focused on these meta-issues, because in terms of where I think this piece goes substantially wrong, I think its that.
As I have said previously, I think what you miss out is important as you are in a really unique place in the community by no fault of your own. There are probably few people deferred to in EA more than you are, so the worry if you miss things out, or if your methodology is wrong (and as I am sure you will admit no one is perfect) is this will get propograted as orthodoxy through the community. I know you tend to not think of yourself as this sort of person, and I don’t think these epistemically deeply unhealthy dynamics are your fault.
Anyway, sorry I couldn’t do a more substantive reply, I am super busy, and it certainly doesn’t seem like forum comments are the most constructive to this discussion. Would you like to have a chat about this at some point so we can really hear each others persepctives?
Thanks for the comment, it was interesting to have examples.
By chance, do you have some documentation on cascading risks caused by shortfalls on energy production? Or more data on what would cause the economy to collapse? I’m looking for this since I have made some posts on energy depletion and trying to keep updating.
By the way, I find the lack of answer by John rather worrying, especially as this seems to be a crucial point you’re making, especially in our interconnected world. Did you manage to chat with him?
Hi John,
So sorry for the lateness of this reply, I have been super busy, and this reply will also only be short as I ma very busy. It would be good to organise a meeting to chat about this at some point if your interested.
On cascading risks, I tink a good recent discussion of cascading risk is found in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25021-8 . A plausible causal story for how climate change leads to a cascade may be as follows. This is obviously flawed and incomplete and clearly needs more study:
To respond to growing threats from climate change, adaptation measures (often technological) will be put in place. However, these adaptation measures, such as physical defences, are often very fragile. Whilst it is possible agricultural production increases, this would also likely be due to adaptation measures, with new things introduced likely to be less resilient due to lack of experience. Moreover, as certain regions get agriculture more badly hit, it is possible you see a few increasing agricultural hubs as those places less effected by climate change/could adapt quicker. This further increases vulnerability
One or a number of critical nodes in this system are hit by a hazard, either one made more likely by climate change, or by another hazard. Sychrnonous failure causes diversion of resources to these areas, and the economic shock makes it harder to sustain adaptation infrastructure, which may then start to fail
Climate impacts cause increased civil unrest. This causes greater economic and political insecurity, making greater diversion of resources away from climate adaptation and towards combating the symptomns of this. The resources exerted can’t match with the pressures on them, both environmental, climatic, social, political, economic. A near complete collapse of a mid-sized economy ensues, with global reprucussions
Meanwhile, climate change has made an engineered pandemic more likely by increasing the number of omnicidal actors. One of these engineered pandemics occur killing 1% of the worlds population, sychronous with a major drought, causing global economic collapse. In response to the drought, a water war between mid-sized powers ensues, leading to the involvement of major powers. Sanctions and embargoes between the powers lead to further economic damage. This is combined by significant food shortages from the drought, and socio-economic damage from the pandemic.
Political tensions rise in India, leading to mass protests. The failure of the Indian government to relieve a Muslim majority region of the famine causes tensions, a police massacre causes this to go into outright rebellion. The Indian government collapses, with major global economic consequences.
Climate impacts continue to scale across the world, with the economic damage from the famine, pandemic and collapse of the Indian government spreading. In the subsequent economic collapse, a major economy defaults on its debts, leading to further ewconomic turmoil. Civil unrest breaks out in another major economy (say Germany), once again causing economic collapse. The new Indian government, crippled and weakened and still under pressure from the civil war, promises to defend its water resources at all costs, however China, also suffering from a drought, cuts off the source of Brahmaputra. A tactical nuclear weapon is set off. Whilst this doesn’t lead to global nuclear war, in the aftermath of this, markets collapse
With a collapsing global economy and mounting climate damages, adaptation measures cannot be meaningfully carried out, as maintences can’t be afforded. This causes more and more damage.
This is the example of a cascade. I didn’t take it all the way to collapse/ extinction, but I think you could probably carry it on yourself. This is just A scenario I just came up with. Its probably not the most plausible. But there are thousands of such scenarios, each which climate change is a key factor in causing, interacting in different ways. this is what I mean by cascade.
On the seperate point of your indirect vs direct framing, it seems like my issues with it are two fold. I tend to think indirect risk is just so much larger a subset of things than direct risk (involves many of the causes of hazards, as well as I assume all exposures and vulnerabilities?), and yet I don’t think your treatment of it gives it this necessary depth. So maybe in theory your framework is well defined, but in practice the category of indirect risk is like “the rest” and so doesn’t seem to give a useful structure for defining what these key impacts are. I think, even if unintentional, the rhetoric of employing such a device privelages direct risks hugely, which I tend to think leads nearly inevitably to your conclusion due to this privelaging.
When you say you expected other criticisms, I can understand why you may be frustrated with my focus on the meta-issues. But I broadly don’t have much of a problem with what you say, and certainly don’t on any areas outside my area of expertise. Its what you don’t say, and the methodology you have used that lets you get there, that worries me. Thats why I have focused on these meta-issues, because in terms of where I think this piece goes substantially wrong, I think its that.
As I have said previously, I think what you miss out is important as you are in a really unique place in the community by no fault of your own. There are probably few people deferred to in EA more than you are, so the worry if you miss things out, or if your methodology is wrong (and as I am sure you will admit no one is perfect) is this will get propograted as orthodoxy through the community. I know you tend to not think of yourself as this sort of person, and I don’t think these epistemically deeply unhealthy dynamics are your fault.
Anyway, sorry I couldn’t do a more substantive reply, I am super busy, and it certainly doesn’t seem like forum comments are the most constructive to this discussion. Would you like to have a chat about this at some point so we can really hear each others persepctives?
Thanks for the comment, it was interesting to have examples.
By chance, do you have some documentation on cascading risks caused by shortfalls on energy production? Or more data on what would cause the economy to collapse? I’m looking for this since I have made some posts on energy depletion and trying to keep updating.
By the way, I find the lack of answer by John rather worrying, especially as this seems to be a crucial point you’re making, especially in our interconnected world. Did you manage to chat with him?