If you think we are in the hingiest or most important century, then the impacts of climate change this century are in fact the main thing that determine its long-term effects
This is untrue if the things that make this century hingey are orthogonal to climate change. If this century is particularly hingey only because of AI development and the risk of engineered pandemics, and climate change will not affect either of those things, then the impacts of climate change this century are not especially important relative to future centuries, even if this century is important relative to future centuries.
All the indirect effects of climate that you consider are great-power conflict, resource conflict, etc. I have not seen arguments that claim this century is especially hingey for any of those factors. Indeed, resource conflict and great power conflict are the norm throughout history. So it seems that the indirect effects of climate on these risk factors is not only relevant for the 21st century but all centuries afterwards.
Takakura does not have a discounting module but considering impacts only up to 2100 is functionally the same as discounting all impacts after 2100. Obviously impacts up to 2100 are relevant to longtermists—my point is that they could be a substantial underestimate of its long-term effects. And you can improve on that substantially with a model that considers 500 years or something similar. It’s a baffling dichotomy to say that you can either consider impacts up to 2100 or millions of years.
This is untrue if the things that make this century hingey are orthogonal to climate change.
I do not think this is true. If we are at a hingey time due to AI and bio, and climate does not affect the hingeyness of this century, then it does not have much impact on the long-term.
Takakura does not have a discounting module but considering impacts only up to 2100 is functionally the same as discounting all impacts after 2100.
You initially said that Takakura et al has a discounting module because it endorses pure time preference. I pointed out that this is not true. So, this seems like changing the subject
I did not say Takakura has a discounting module and this is not changing the subject. What I said was:
I have an issue with Takakura and other models. All models I’ve seen measure climate impacts in a) a social cost of carbon, whose value is based on a pure time preference discount factor, or b) impacts by the end of the 21st century, which ignores impacts into future centuries.
Takakura has the latter problem, which is my issue with it as you use it.
If we are at a hingey time due to AI and bio, and climate does not affect the hingeyness of this century, then it does not have much impact on the long-term.
This doesn’t seem right as a criterion and is also counter to some examples of longtermist success. For example, the campaign to reduce slavery improved the long term by eliminating a factor that would have caused recurring damage over the long term. Climate mitigation reduces a recurring damage over the long term: if that recurring damage each year is large enough, it can be an important longtermist area. My point is that the impacts of climate in the 21st century are probably a substantial underestimate of their total long-term impact. It’s totally possible that when you account for the total impact it is still not important, but that doesn’t follow automatically from climates effect on hingeyness.
I’m not sure I understand your second comment. ‘hingey’ means that we are living at the most influential time ever. This includes things like value change around slavery.
This is untrue if the things that make this century hingey are orthogonal to climate change. If this century is particularly hingey only because of AI development and the risk of engineered pandemics, and climate change will not affect either of those things, then the impacts of climate change this century are not especially important relative to future centuries, even if this century is important relative to future centuries.
All the indirect effects of climate that you consider are great-power conflict, resource conflict, etc. I have not seen arguments that claim this century is especially hingey for any of those factors. Indeed, resource conflict and great power conflict are the norm throughout history. So it seems that the indirect effects of climate on these risk factors is not only relevant for the 21st century but all centuries afterwards.
Takakura does not have a discounting module but considering impacts only up to 2100 is functionally the same as discounting all impacts after 2100. Obviously impacts up to 2100 are relevant to longtermists—my point is that they could be a substantial underestimate of its long-term effects. And you can improve on that substantially with a model that considers 500 years or something similar. It’s a baffling dichotomy to say that you can either consider impacts up to 2100 or millions of years.
I do not think this is true. If we are at a hingey time due to AI and bio, and climate does not affect the hingeyness of this century, then it does not have much impact on the long-term.
You initially said that Takakura et al has a discounting module because it endorses pure time preference. I pointed out that this is not true. So, this seems like changing the subject
I did not say Takakura has a discounting module and this is not changing the subject. What I said was:
Takakura has the latter problem, which is my issue with it as you use it.
This doesn’t seem right as a criterion and is also counter to some examples of longtermist success. For example, the campaign to reduce slavery improved the long term by eliminating a factor that would have caused recurring damage over the long term. Climate mitigation reduces a recurring damage over the long term: if that recurring damage each year is large enough, it can be an important longtermist area. My point is that the impacts of climate in the 21st century are probably a substantial underestimate of their total long-term impact. It’s totally possible that when you account for the total impact it is still not important, but that doesn’t follow automatically from climates effect on hingeyness.
Fair enough on your Takakura point, I misread.
I’m not sure I understand your second comment. ‘hingey’ means that we are living at the most influential time ever. This includes things like value change around slavery.