Cool, thanks. With that source, I agree it’s correct to say that Garry Tan has claimed that “YC batches are the fastest growing in their history because of generative AI” for the summer 2024, autumn 2024 and winter 2025 batches.
Have you noticed him making a similar claim for earlier batches?
Not to my knowledge. I agree with your point that maybe it’s just too soon to see any results (this is why I put “yet” in the title).
I’ve been trying to think about what a good prediction market for this post would be, because I’d like to get some signal on whether this is the explanation—any thoughts? Maybe something like “if I run this exact same analysis one year from now, will at least two 2024 batch companies be on the list of 20 fastest 2-year growth YC startups?”
Cool, thanks. With that source, I agree it’s correct to say that Garry Tan has claimed that “YC batches are the fastest growing in their history because of generative AI” for the summer 2024, autumn 2024 and winter 2025 batches.
Have you noticed him making a similar claim for earlier batches?
Not to my knowledge. I agree with your point that maybe it’s just too soon to see any results (this is why I put “yet” in the title).
I’ve been trying to think about what a good prediction market for this post would be, because I’d like to get some signal on whether this is the explanation—any thoughts? Maybe something like “if I run this exact same analysis one year from now, will at least two 2024 batch companies be on the list of 20 fastest 2-year growth YC startups?”
I’ve no experience writing questions for prediction markets. With that caveat: something like that question sounds good.
Ideally I’d like to see the 1-year analysis run in 2026Q1.