Not to my knowledge. I agree with your point that maybe it’s just too soon to see any results (this is why I put “yet” in the title).
I’ve been trying to think about what a good prediction market for this post would be, because I’d like to get some signal on whether this is the explanation—any thoughts? Maybe something like “if I run this exact same analysis one year from now, will at least two 2024 batch companies be on the list of 20 fastest 2-year growth YC startups?”
Not to my knowledge. I agree with your point that maybe it’s just too soon to see any results (this is why I put “yet” in the title).
I’ve been trying to think about what a good prediction market for this post would be, because I’d like to get some signal on whether this is the explanation—any thoughts? Maybe something like “if I run this exact same analysis one year from now, will at least two 2024 batch companies be on the list of 20 fastest 2-year growth YC startups?”
I’ve no experience writing questions for prediction markets. With that caveat: something like that question sounds good.
Ideally I’d like to see the 1-year analysis run in 2026Q1.