This is really cool, and I’m glad to see that one of the first posts in this series is on a somewhat unconventional EA idea.
I’m curious, though—you seem to conclude pretty decisively that GCRs, or at least general far future trajectory changes, are the highest-impact cause, but then you select alternate foods rather than other far future interventions because it is competitive with other GCR causes but is also good for global poverty and environmentalism. If GCRs or far future trajectory changes are overwhelmingly important, it seems you should just choose whichever intervention seems most important for the far future and call it a day. A marginal difference in impact on the far future should outweigh impact on other causes that are far less important. Of course, it could be that GCRs are only slightly more important than the other causes, in which case this calculation makes sense. But it seems like you think they’re likely to be far more important, so I’m curious about how you reconcile this.
Thanks, and good points. There is a lot of uncertainty in the cost effectiveness of GCR interventions (especially given my crude framework so far—this would be much more accurate). So I would not have a lot of confidence to say that one is the best. I would have slightly more confidence to saying that the group I mentioned is likely to be more cost-effective than the GCRs I did not mention.
Because I have two independent lines of reasoning pointing towards the overwhelming importance of reducing GCR, I am fairly confident in that. But I am not 100% confident, so there is an advantage of having benefits in other frameworks (“no regrets”). Also, I am particularly excited about the fact that alternate foods have an opportunity to unite some of the factions within EA.
This is really cool, and I’m glad to see that one of the first posts in this series is on a somewhat unconventional EA idea.
I’m curious, though—you seem to conclude pretty decisively that GCRs, or at least general far future trajectory changes, are the highest-impact cause, but then you select alternate foods rather than other far future interventions because it is competitive with other GCR causes but is also good for global poverty and environmentalism. If GCRs or far future trajectory changes are overwhelmingly important, it seems you should just choose whichever intervention seems most important for the far future and call it a day. A marginal difference in impact on the far future should outweigh impact on other causes that are far less important. Of course, it could be that GCRs are only slightly more important than the other causes, in which case this calculation makes sense. But it seems like you think they’re likely to be far more important, so I’m curious about how you reconcile this.
Thanks, and good points. There is a lot of uncertainty in the cost effectiveness of GCR interventions (especially given my crude framework so far—this would be much more accurate). So I would not have a lot of confidence to say that one is the best. I would have slightly more confidence to saying that the group I mentioned is likely to be more cost-effective than the GCRs I did not mention. Because I have two independent lines of reasoning pointing towards the overwhelming importance of reducing GCR, I am fairly confident in that. But I am not 100% confident, so there is an advantage of having benefits in other frameworks (“no regrets”). Also, I am particularly excited about the fact that alternate foods have an opportunity to unite some of the factions within EA.