“Trust but verify” is Reagan’s famous line on this.
Most EAs would agree with “90% of people are basically trying to do the right thing”. But most of them have a very difficult time acting as though there’s a 10% chance anyone they’re talking to is an asshole. You shouldn’t be expecting people to be assholes, but you should be considering the 10% chance they are and updating that probability based on evidence. Maya Angelou wrote “If someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”.
As a Bayesian who recognizes the importance of not updating too quickly away from your prior, I’d like to amend this to “If someone shows you who they are, believe them the 2nd or 3rd time they release a model that substantially increases the probability we’re all going to die”.
“Trust but verify” is Reagan’s famous line on this.
Most EAs would agree with “90% of people are basically trying to do the right thing”. But most of them have a very difficult time acting as though there’s a 10% chance anyone they’re talking to is an asshole. You shouldn’t be expecting people to be assholes, but you should be considering the 10% chance they are and updating that probability based on evidence. Maya Angelou wrote “If someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”.
As a Bayesian who recognizes the importance of not updating too quickly away from your prior, I’d like to amend this to “If someone shows you who they are, believe them the 2nd or 3rd time they release a model that substantially increases the probability we’re all going to die”.