I would consider myself to be a very trusting and forgiving person who always starts with the mentality of âYes, but most people are inherently goodâ. I definitely went through a long period of âAh well I mean surely Sam (SBF) isnât actually a âbadâ guy rightâ. This felt like a productive slap in the face.
I would still prefer to be more than less trusting, but maybe I should dial it back a bit. Thanks.
âTrust but verifyâ is Reaganâs famous line on this.
Most EAs would agree with â90% of people are basically trying to do the right thingâ. But most of them have a very difficult time acting as though thereâs a 10% chance anyone theyâre talking to is an asshole. You shouldnât be expecting people to be assholes, but you should be considering the 10% chance they are and updating that probability based on evidence. Maya Angelou wrote âIf someone shows you who they are, believe them the first timeâ.
As a Bayesian who recognizes the importance of not updating too quickly away from your prior, Iâd like to amend this to âIf someone shows you who they are, believe them the 2nd or 3rd time they release a model that substantially increases the probability weâre all going to dieâ.
tldr, thanks for writing.
I would consider myself to be a very trusting and forgiving person who always starts with the mentality of âYes, but most people are inherently goodâ. I definitely went through a long period of âAh well I mean surely Sam (SBF) isnât actually a âbadâ guy rightâ. This felt like a productive slap in the face.
I would still prefer to be more than less trusting, but maybe I should dial it back a bit. Thanks.
âTrust but verifyâ is Reaganâs famous line on this.
Most EAs would agree with â90% of people are basically trying to do the right thingâ. But most of them have a very difficult time acting as though thereâs a 10% chance anyone theyâre talking to is an asshole. You shouldnât be expecting people to be assholes, but you should be considering the 10% chance they are and updating that probability based on evidence. Maya Angelou wrote âIf someone shows you who they are, believe them the first timeâ.
As a Bayesian who recognizes the importance of not updating too quickly away from your prior, Iâd like to amend this to âIf someone shows you who they are, believe them the 2nd or 3rd time they release a model that substantially increases the probability weâre all going to dieâ.