. . . . I think lots of successful GHW CE charities (some of which are run by people I really admire and are personal friends of mine) are very unlikely to beat the very best other donation options I am aware of . . . .
This implies a crux to me. Presumably the people running these charities seek funding from EA sources, despite knowing that counterfactually the bulk of that money would otherwise go to AGF/GHDF/et al. Do you think they disagree with your assessment of their effectiveness, perhaps due to different moral weights?
I’m not suggesting your assessment is wrong—my own tentative view is that there aren’t (m)any places with room for large amounts of funding that would beat GiveWell AGF or similar on pure QUALYs (or equivalent).
main purpose of funding these kinds of narrow GHW charities it almost entirely for the value of discovering that it beats the very best GHW charities we are already aware of + have room for funding
That’s a second crux, I think. While that is an important purpose, it is not as predominant a purpose in my view. There are lots of monies out there that are practically restricted in a way that precludes AGF et al. from competing for them. This could be due to pre-defined government/foundation grant areas, or due to an individual donor’s personal preferences, or a non-EA donor’s desire for some higher quantum of warm fuzzies than organizations like AMF can provide. If we don’t have anything to offer in those areas, we are conceding them to less effective charities.
All funding niches have low-hanging fruit and monies that are harder to acquire. For instance, speaking from personal experience, there are a lot of US evangelical Christians who won’t donate to an organization unless it is Christian-flavored enough. As you might guess, I do not share that view—but it is what it is, and some people with these views are wealthy. Kaleem’s recent quick take on zakat provides another possible example. Other donors really want to donate to mental-health causes, etc. Meanwhile, most GiveWell-recommended charities are significantly operating in a specific zone of fundraising (i.e., donors open to all sorts of charities without any self-imposed limitations). Thus, while it likely isn’t cost-effective to fund organizations that operate in niches merely for the QUALYs they produce, it may be beneficial to support them in their earlier stages until they are developed enough to mine their niche for non-EA resources effectively.
Another consideration is that it is unlikely that the current top GHW charities will be as effective in ~20-30 years. It’s plausible, albeit unlikely, that we will see PEPFAR levels of funding for malaria vaccines in the next decade or so. (Who would have predicted PEPFAR would have happened, and under Bush II at that?) Infectious disease and malnutrition generally become less overwhelming of a problem as a society develops economically. So an effective GHW field that doesn’t grow and develop is unlikely to remain particularly effective in the long run.
That being said: while more cost-effective GHW meta opportunities may well exist, it may be rather difficult to find and evaluate many of them (outside of charity evaluators and effective-giving group support where the causal chain to impact is easier to determine). I’m curious, though, whether/why that would be so much harder in GHW than in longtermism or animal welfare (which do have EA Funds that will consider requests formerly fielded by EAIF). Is it primarily inherent to GHW meta work, or is it more a function of who is skilled up & available to do that evaluation?
Presumably the people running these charities seek funding from EA sources, despite knowing that counterfactually the bulk of that money would otherwise go to AGF/GHDF/et al.
This presumption isn’t always true. In 2019, at CSH we made a deliberate decision not to continue seeking funding from sources that would counterfactually donate to GiveWell top charities.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Jason! I noticed it was downvoted. Excluding my strong upvote and your vote, it would have −7 karma for 2 votes. Caleb’s strong downvote is worth −7, so he (or other person) might have strongly downvoted your comment anticipating it would be significantly upvoted by others, which in this case did not happen. I think it makes sense to strongly downvote comments which are only a few words, and have already tens of karma, but I believe substantive comments with not much karma like yours should only be strongly downvoted if they are offensive or have major factual errors. In addition, to the extent this is case, I think downvoters would ideally point out the errors.
This implies a crux to me. Presumably the people running these charities seek funding from EA sources, despite knowing that counterfactually the bulk of that money would otherwise go to AGF/GHDF/et al. Do you think they disagree with your assessment of their effectiveness, perhaps due to different moral weights?
I’m not suggesting your assessment is wrong—my own tentative view is that there aren’t (m)any places with room for large amounts of funding that would beat GiveWell AGF or similar on pure QUALYs (or equivalent).
That’s a second crux, I think. While that is an important purpose, it is not as predominant a purpose in my view. There are lots of monies out there that are practically restricted in a way that precludes AGF et al. from competing for them. This could be due to pre-defined government/foundation grant areas, or due to an individual donor’s personal preferences, or a non-EA donor’s desire for some higher quantum of warm fuzzies than organizations like AMF can provide. If we don’t have anything to offer in those areas, we are conceding them to less effective charities.
All funding niches have low-hanging fruit and monies that are harder to acquire. For instance, speaking from personal experience, there are a lot of US evangelical Christians who won’t donate to an organization unless it is Christian-flavored enough. As you might guess, I do not share that view—but it is what it is, and some people with these views are wealthy. Kaleem’s recent quick take on zakat provides another possible example. Other donors really want to donate to mental-health causes, etc. Meanwhile, most GiveWell-recommended charities are significantly operating in a specific zone of fundraising (i.e., donors open to all sorts of charities without any self-imposed limitations). Thus, while it likely isn’t cost-effective to fund organizations that operate in niches merely for the QUALYs they produce, it may be beneficial to support them in their earlier stages until they are developed enough to mine their niche for non-EA resources effectively.
Another consideration is that it is unlikely that the current top GHW charities will be as effective in ~20-30 years. It’s plausible, albeit unlikely, that we will see PEPFAR levels of funding for malaria vaccines in the next decade or so. (Who would have predicted PEPFAR would have happened, and under Bush II at that?) Infectious disease and malnutrition generally become less overwhelming of a problem as a society develops economically. So an effective GHW field that doesn’t grow and develop is unlikely to remain particularly effective in the long run.
That being said: while more cost-effective GHW meta opportunities may well exist, it may be rather difficult to find and evaluate many of them (outside of charity evaluators and effective-giving group support where the causal chain to impact is easier to determine). I’m curious, though, whether/why that would be so much harder in GHW than in longtermism or animal welfare (which do have EA Funds that will consider requests formerly fielded by EAIF). Is it primarily inherent to GHW meta work, or is it more a function of who is skilled up & available to do that evaluation?
This presumption isn’t always true. In 2019, at CSH we made a deliberate decision not to continue seeking funding from sources that would counterfactually donate to GiveWell top charities.
Thanks for clarifying, Katriel. For readers reference, CSH stands for Charity Science Health.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Jason! I noticed it was downvoted. Excluding my strong upvote and your vote, it would have −7 karma for 2 votes. Caleb’s strong downvote is worth −7, so he (or other person) might have strongly downvoted your comment anticipating it would be significantly upvoted by others, which in this case did not happen. I think it makes sense to strongly downvote comments which are only a few words, and have already tens of karma, but I believe substantive comments with not much karma like yours should only be strongly downvoted if they are offensive or have major factual errors. In addition, to the extent this is case, I think downvoters would ideally point out the errors.