I feel pretty flattered to be even vaguely categorized with all of those folks, but I think it’s pretty unlikely of working out that well (it almost always is). If I was pretty sure (>30%) I could make a company as large as Apple/Twitter/Tesla/YC, I’d be pretty happy to go that route.
I’ve chatted to hundreds of entrepreneurs and tried this, arguably, twice before. That said, if later it’s predicted that going the more direct business way would be better for total expected value, I could definitely be open to changing later.
Basically, though it’s a bit extra short when weighted for what we can change. Transformative narrow AI or other transformative technologies could also apply.
I feel pretty flattered to be even vaguely categorized with all of those folks, but I think it’s pretty unlikely of working out that well (it almost always is). If I was pretty sure (>30%) I could make a company as large as Apple/Twitter/Tesla/YC, I’d be pretty happy to go that route.
I’ve chatted to hundreds of entrepreneurs and tried this, arguably, twice before. That said, if later it’s predicted that going the more direct business way would be better for total expected value, I could definitely be open to changing later.
Another thing to note: I’m optimizing on a time-horizon of around 10-30 years. Making a business first could easily take 6-20 years.
Does this flow from your AGI timeline estimate?
Basically, though it’s a bit extra short when weighted for what we can change. Transformative narrow AI or other transformative technologies could also apply.