There was a related GiveWell post from 12 years ago, including a similar example where higher “unbiased” estimates correspond to lower posterior expectations.
That post is mostly focused on practical issues about being a human, and much less amusing, but it speaks directly to your question #2.
There was a related GiveWell post from 12 years ago, including a similar example where higher “unbiased” estimates correspond to lower posterior expectations.
That post is mostly focused on practical issues about being a human, and much less amusing, but it speaks directly to your question #2.
(Of course, I’m most interested in question #3!)
Also see Why the Tails Come Apart, and to regressional Goodhart.