Predictors on Metaculus seeing the prior prediction history seems like a plausible confounder to me, but I’m not sure it would change the result.
Yes, this is the main difference compared to forecasters being randomly assigned to a question.
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Predictors on Metaculus seeing the prior prediction history seems like a plausible confounder to me, but I’m not sure it would change the result.
Yes, this is the main difference compared to forecasters being randomly assigned to a question.