Kenan Schaefkofer comments on More Is Probably More—Forecasting Accuracy and Number of Forecasters on Metaculus

Kenan Schaefkofer 2 Feb 2023 1:39 UTC
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Predictors on Metaculus seeing the prior prediction history seems like a plausible confounder to me, but I’m not sure it would change the result.
- Michael_Wiebe 2 Feb 2023 4:14 UTC
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  Yes, this is the main difference compared to forecasters being randomly assigned to a question.