My understanding is that GWWC are working on an impact evaluation which will look at issues of membership attrition, so will hopefully cover the first bullet point. I’d guess the other ones will remain matters of conjecture until enough time has passed. Given the changes you are worried about happened in 2013-2014, they’d have to be disastrous to see much of a signal 1-2 years post. I agree the longitudinal data will be interesting over time.
(If there is a drop off in ‘member quality’, though, it might be difficult to find out why: there’s a plausible selection effect whereby the more committed people are likely to discover (and join) GWWC earlier. I’d guess the secular trend—regardless of strategic choices GWWC makes—is that later members are less likely to fulfil their pledges.)
Although the change in the pledge precedes the massive spike in pledges, it played little causal role. A far more important event was the hugely successful recruitment event run by Ravi Patel and others, which recruited hundreds of people around the Christmas season. (https://​​www.facebook.com/​​events/​​1581545938749145/​​)
(For disclosure: I’m a member of GWWC, formerly volunteered for them, and continue to donate to them directly. I’m not officially involved though, so please don’t take my remarks as anything official—given how inept I generally am at remarking, I’m sure GWWC would want you to do the same!)
My understanding is that GWWC are working on an impact evaluation which will look at issues of membership attrition, so will hopefully cover the first bullet point. I’d guess the other ones will remain matters of conjecture until enough time has passed. Given the changes you are worried about happened in 2013-2014, they’d have to be disastrous to see much of a signal 1-2 years post. I agree the longitudinal data will be interesting over time.
(If there is a drop off in ‘member quality’, though, it might be difficult to find out why: there’s a plausible selection effect whereby the more committed people are likely to discover (and join) GWWC earlier. I’d guess the secular trend—regardless of strategic choices GWWC makes—is that later members are less likely to fulfil their pledges.)
Although the change in the pledge precedes the massive spike in pledges, it played little causal role. A far more important event was the hugely successful recruitment event run by Ravi Patel and others, which recruited hundreds of people around the Christmas season. (https://​​www.facebook.com/​​events/​​1581545938749145/​​)
(For disclosure: I’m a member of GWWC, formerly volunteered for them, and continue to donate to them directly. I’m not officially involved though, so please don’t take my remarks as anything official—given how inept I generally am at remarking, I’m sure GWWC would want you to do the same!)