The survey also indicated the means of the distributions of percent reduction in far future loss due to ALLFED (and the work done by ALLFED researchers before the organization was officially formed) were 4% and 5% for full-scale nuclear war and 10% agricultural shortfalls, respectively.
I donāt know whether you āagreeā with the surveyās distribution, or believe these means to be realistic. But if you do think that a 5% reduction is at least plausible, what would you say are the main drivers of ALLFEDās having been able to produce this reduction through its work so far (not work it plans to conduct later)?
Iām trying to figure out a world would look like where ALLFEDās work so far wound up helping to save a lot of lives. (This work seems to be mostly papers and workshops, but could also include work that isnāt as easy to display, like conversations with influential people.)
It could be that ALLFED indirectly inspired other organizations, leading to those orgs beginning to conduct research or make plans; it could be that ALLFEDās own research was directly useful to governments as they shaped their response plans; it could be ALLFEDās workshops taught key lessons to important people, who reacted better than they otherwise would have...
...but Iām not sure which of these stories you think sounds most likely/āimportant.
This definitely isnāt a well-formed question (my apologies!), but do you have any thoughts on the most important way(s) that ALLFEDās prior work has begun to make the world safer?
David,
You write:
I donāt know whether you āagreeā with the surveyās distribution, or believe these means to be realistic. But if you do think that a 5% reduction is at least plausible, what would you say are the main drivers of ALLFEDās having been able to produce this reduction through its work so far (not work it plans to conduct later)?
Iām trying to figure out a world would look like where ALLFEDās work so far wound up helping to save a lot of lives. (This work seems to be mostly papers and workshops, but could also include work that isnāt as easy to display, like conversations with influential people.)
It could be that ALLFED indirectly inspired other organizations, leading to those orgs beginning to conduct research or make plans; it could be that ALLFEDās own research was directly useful to governments as they shaped their response plans; it could be ALLFEDās workshops taught key lessons to important people, who reacted better than they otherwise would have...
...but Iām not sure which of these stories you think sounds most likely/āimportant.
This definitely isnāt a well-formed question (my apologies!), but do you have any thoughts on the most important way(s) that ALLFEDās prior work has begun to make the world safer?