The survey also indicated the means of the distributions of percent reduction in far future loss due to ALLFED (and the work done by ALLFED researchers before the organization was officially formed) were 4% and 5% for full-scale nuclear war and 10% agricultural shortfalls, respectively.
I don’t know whether you “agree” with the survey’s distribution, or believe these means to be realistic. But if you do think that a 5% reduction is at least plausible, what would you say are the main drivers of ALLFED’s having been able to produce this reduction through its work so far (not work it plans to conduct later)?
I’m trying to figure out a world would look like where ALLFED’s work so far wound up helping to save a lot of lives. (This work seems to be mostly papers and workshops, but could also include work that isn’t as easy to display, like conversations with influential people.)
It could be that ALLFED indirectly inspired other organizations, leading to those orgs beginning to conduct research or make plans; it could be that ALLFED’s own research was directly useful to governments as they shaped their response plans; it could be ALLFED’s workshops taught key lessons to important people, who reacted better than they otherwise would have...
...but I’m not sure which of these stories you think sounds most likely/important.
This definitely isn’t a well-formed question (my apologies!), but do you have any thoughts on the most important way(s) that ALLFED’s prior work has begun to make the world safer?
David,
You write:
I don’t know whether you “agree” with the survey’s distribution, or believe these means to be realistic. But if you do think that a 5% reduction is at least plausible, what would you say are the main drivers of ALLFED’s having been able to produce this reduction through its work so far (not work it plans to conduct later)?
I’m trying to figure out a world would look like where ALLFED’s work so far wound up helping to save a lot of lives. (This work seems to be mostly papers and workshops, but could also include work that isn’t as easy to display, like conversations with influential people.)
It could be that ALLFED indirectly inspired other organizations, leading to those orgs beginning to conduct research or make plans; it could be that ALLFED’s own research was directly useful to governments as they shaped their response plans; it could be ALLFED’s workshops taught key lessons to important people, who reacted better than they otherwise would have...
...but I’m not sure which of these stories you think sounds most likely/important.
This definitely isn’t a well-formed question (my apologies!), but do you have any thoughts on the most important way(s) that ALLFED’s prior work has begun to make the world safer?