My impression is Michael’s update could easily be directionally correct if we refine that estimate.
If we count direct work in non-EA orgs (which Michael seemed interested in), this opens many more options; ~34% of survey respondents (11.7 + 8.7 + 5.6 + 4.2 + 3.9) seem to be doing such work, although it’s unclear how many of them are working on causes they see as most pressing.
The 2020 survey of the community found that ~20% of respondents self-reported “high engagement” with EA. (And that’s likely an overestimate due to survey selection effects.) This knocks down our denominator by a factor of ~5, approaching the possibility you raise that maybe “‘hard work and dedicated’” does convey 2 to 10% to your audience.”
And now some anecdotal evidence:
I don’t get the impression that the number of “EA jobs” has literally doubled in the past year
Maybe not doubling across the board, but some areas (especially within meta-EA and longtermism) seem to be growing very quickly:
The number of CEA focus universities with community building grantees roughly doubled this past year (as a proxy for how the number of grantees has changed), with plans for creating more full-time work opportunities for university organizers
Redwood Research started up, announced plans for some exponential growth, and has already hired 10+ people to do AI safety research
What makes me most optimistic is probably that, of a handful of recent graduates I happen to know who are very dedicated to meta-EA and/or longtermism, a large majority have been able to get either employment or grants to do direct work (typically following ~1-2 years building relevant skills / track records, often while at university). (Caveat: most of them are from “top schools” and/or live near EA hubs, which likely helps.)
My impression is Michael’s update could easily be directionally correct if we refine that estimate.
If we count direct work in non-EA orgs (which Michael seemed interested in), this opens many more options; ~34% of survey respondents (11.7 + 8.7 + 5.6 + 4.2 + 3.9) seem to be doing such work, although it’s unclear how many of them are working on causes they see as most pressing.
The 2020 survey of the community found that ~20% of respondents self-reported “high engagement” with EA. (And that’s likely an overestimate due to survey selection effects.) This knocks down our denominator by a factor of ~5, approaching the possibility you raise that maybe “‘hard work and dedicated’” does convey 2 to 10% to your audience.”
And now some anecdotal evidence:
Maybe not doubling across the board, but some areas (especially within meta-EA and longtermism) seem to be growing very quickly:
CEA’s number of staff nearly doubled this past year
The number of CEA focus universities with community building grantees roughly doubled this past year (as a proxy for how the number of grantees has changed), with plans for creating more full-time work opportunities for university organizers
Redwood Research started up, announced plans for some exponential growth, and has already hired 10+ people to do AI safety research
Rethink Priorities also doubled in staff size this past year
What makes me most optimistic is probably that, of a handful of recent graduates I happen to know who are very dedicated to meta-EA and/or longtermism, a large majority have been able to get either employment or grants to do direct work (typically following ~1-2 years building relevant skills / track records, often while at university). (Caveat: most of them are from “top schools” and/or live near EA hubs, which likely helps.)
Makes sense