For questions that resolved in 2021, the Metaculus Prediction has a Brier score of 0.107. Lower Brier scores indicate greater accuracy, with the MP slightly lower than the Community Prediction’s Brier score of 0.108.
It somewhat surprises me the difference between Metaculus’ prediction and Metaculus’ Community prediction is so small. It arguably suggests one of the following:
The recency weighted median used for the Cummunity prediction is actually a pretty good way of aggregating forecasts.
Metaculus’ Prediction still has quite some room for improvement.
Thanks, I really like this initiative!
It somewhat surprises me the difference between Metaculus’ prediction and Metaculus’ Community prediction is so small. It arguably suggests one of the following:
The recency weighted median used for the Cummunity prediction is actually a pretty good way of aggregating forecasts.
Metaculus’ Prediction still has quite some room for improvement.
My understanding is the answer is both!