On the counterfactual investment point—it’s worth noting that alternative proteins has a very clear venture case that allowed it to pull in non-EA money (high market size, tech moat, disruption story). Welfare tech usually doesn’t have this shape, so is much less likely to pull in significant unaligned capital. E.g. if you look at in-ovo sexing companies, only one of them is venture backed, and they have a much broader story than just in-ovo sexing (making cheaper MRI for other agriculture applications and humane health).
I think there’s a “sweet spot” of returns that are positive but below market where the double appeal of impact and ROI is actually an upside for philanthropic capital, since its both counterfactual and can be reinvested.
On your last point—there are many stakeholders that that get “but for” credit, including the advocates but also the tech companies. Shrimp stunning might not have happened without SWP but it also wouldn’t have happened without the tech company. If there are areas where there is an unmet need in the market, then getting those companies started could be a big counterfactual win.
On the counterfactual investment point—it’s worth noting that alternative proteins has a very clear venture case that allowed it to pull in non-EA money (high market size, tech moat, disruption story). Welfare tech usually doesn’t have this shape, so is much less likely to pull in significant unaligned capital. E.g. if you look at in-ovo sexing companies, only one of them is venture backed, and they have a much broader story than just in-ovo sexing (making cheaper MRI for other agriculture applications and humane health).
I think there’s a “sweet spot” of returns that are positive but below market where the double appeal of impact and ROI is actually an upside for philanthropic capital, since its both counterfactual and can be reinvested.
On your last point—there are many stakeholders that that get “but for” credit, including the advocates but also the tech companies. Shrimp stunning might not have happened without SWP but it also wouldn’t have happened without the tech company. If there are areas where there is an unmet need in the market, then getting those companies started could be a big counterfactual win.
I mostly agree with your other points!