Please let me know if you change your mind after reading Tramwell’s argument. At least for me, in my home country, is very complex to invest in such a volatile scenarion. I’m probably biased here; I have already lost a significant portion of my savings (which was dumb, because I knew Covid was coming), and my first thought was “I should have given it all to AMF.”
I’ve now read Trammell’s write-up. I didn’t spot any notable flaws—though I also didn’t really try to understand the equations, as I’m not an economist. And I haven’t seen any critiques of his ideas that seemed compelling and that he hadn’t already accounted for—though I also don’t think I’ve seen a massive amount of discussion of his ideas in the first place. So I’ve updated somewhat towards more belief in the arguments for most investing, letting interest compound, and giving a lot later. Though I still plan to give 10% per year, at least until I become further convinced by those arguments.
I’ve also drafted a post on Crucial questions about optimal timing of work and donations, which outlines a lot of relevant arguments. The post doesn’t really argue for an overall conclusion, but the process of writing it very weakly updated me further in the direction of investing to donate more later.
(Caveat for the following: I am not an expert on investing.) I think that, if investing is currently a bad idea or expected interest is currently low (I won’t comment on whether this is true), but Trammell’s arguments generally hold, this seems like it would only somewhat weaken the argument for investing and donating a lot later. I.e., I think it would only weaken that argument to the extent that there’s somewhat less compounding expected. So it might make sense in that case to save in a bank or something, and then still invest later (once the situation is better), let investment earnings compound from that point onwards, and donate a lot at some future point. Rather than donating all of one’s “EA money” this year.
Personally, I don’t invest everything other than what I spend and my 10%; instead, I keep a decent chunk in the bank as “runway”. And I plan to occasionally move some of that money from the bank to investments, when the runway is larger than I need. (I’ve also been very lucky in a lot of ways, and I acknowledge that not everyone will be able to do these things.)
I’ve now read Trammell’s write-up. I didn’t spot any notable flaws—though I also didn’t really try to understand the equations, as I’m not an economist. And I haven’t seen any critiques of his ideas that seemed compelling and that he hadn’t already accounted for—though I also don’t think I’ve seen a massive amount of discussion of his ideas in the first place. So I’ve updated somewhat towards more belief in the arguments for most investing, letting interest compound, and giving a lot later. Though I still plan to give 10% per year, at least until I become further convinced by those arguments.
I’ve also drafted a post on Crucial questions about optimal timing of work and donations, which outlines a lot of relevant arguments. The post doesn’t really argue for an overall conclusion, but the process of writing it very weakly updated me further in the direction of investing to donate more later.
(Caveat for the following: I am not an expert on investing.) I think that, if investing is currently a bad idea or expected interest is currently low (I won’t comment on whether this is true), but Trammell’s arguments generally hold, this seems like it would only somewhat weaken the argument for investing and donating a lot later. I.e., I think it would only weaken that argument to the extent that there’s somewhat less compounding expected. So it might make sense in that case to save in a bank or something, and then still invest later (once the situation is better), let investment earnings compound from that point onwards, and donate a lot at some future point. Rather than donating all of one’s “EA money” this year.
Personally, I don’t invest everything other than what I spend and my 10%; instead, I keep a decent chunk in the bank as “runway”. And I plan to occasionally move some of that money from the bank to investments, when the runway is larger than I need. (I’ve also been very lucky in a lot of ways, and I acknowledge that not everyone will be able to do these things.)