Please let me know if you change your mind after reading Tramwellâs argument. At least for me, in my home country, is very complex to invest in such a volatile scenarion. Iâm probably biased here; I have already lost a significant portion of my savings (which was dumb, because I knew Covid was coming), and my first thought was âI should have given it all to AMF.â
Iâve now read Trammellâs write-up. I didnât spot any notable flawsâthough I also didnât really try to understand the equations, as Iâm not an economist. And I havenât seen any critiques of his ideas that seemed compelling and that he hadnât already accounted forâthough I also donât think Iâve seen a massive amount of discussion of his ideas in the first place. So Iâve updated somewhat towards more belief in the arguments for most investing, letting interest compound, and giving a lot later. Though I still plan to give 10% per year, at least until I become further convinced by those arguments.
Iâve also drafted a post on Crucial questions about optimal timing of work and donations, which outlines a lot of relevant arguments. The post doesnât really argue for an overall conclusion, but the process of writing it very weakly updated me further in the direction of investing to donate more later.
(Caveat for the following: I am not an expert on investing.) I think that, if investing is currently a bad idea or expected interest is currently low (I wonât comment on whether this is true), but Trammellâs arguments generally hold, this seems like it would only somewhat weaken the argument for investing and donating a lot later. I.e., I think it would only weaken that argument to the extent that thereâs somewhat less compounding expected. So it might make sense in that case to save in a bank or something, and then still invest later (once the situation is better), let investment earnings compound from that point onwards, and donate a lot at some future point. Rather than donating all of oneâs âEA moneyâ this year.
Personally, I donât invest everything other than what I spend and my 10%; instead, I keep a decent chunk in the bank as ârunwayâ. And I plan to occasionally move some of that money from the bank to investments, when the runway is larger than I need. (Iâve also been very lucky in a lot of ways, and I acknowledge that not everyone will be able to do these things.)
Iâve now read Trammellâs write-up. I didnât spot any notable flawsâthough I also didnât really try to understand the equations, as Iâm not an economist. And I havenât seen any critiques of his ideas that seemed compelling and that he hadnât already accounted forâthough I also donât think Iâve seen a massive amount of discussion of his ideas in the first place. So Iâve updated somewhat towards more belief in the arguments for most investing, letting interest compound, and giving a lot later. Though I still plan to give 10% per year, at least until I become further convinced by those arguments.
Iâve also drafted a post on Crucial questions about optimal timing of work and donations, which outlines a lot of relevant arguments. The post doesnât really argue for an overall conclusion, but the process of writing it very weakly updated me further in the direction of investing to donate more later.
(Caveat for the following: I am not an expert on investing.) I think that, if investing is currently a bad idea or expected interest is currently low (I wonât comment on whether this is true), but Trammellâs arguments generally hold, this seems like it would only somewhat weaken the argument for investing and donating a lot later. I.e., I think it would only weaken that argument to the extent that thereâs somewhat less compounding expected. So it might make sense in that case to save in a bank or something, and then still invest later (once the situation is better), let investment earnings compound from that point onwards, and donate a lot at some future point. Rather than donating all of oneâs âEA moneyâ this year.
Personally, I donât invest everything other than what I spend and my 10%; instead, I keep a decent chunk in the bank as ârunwayâ. And I plan to occasionally move some of that money from the bank to investments, when the runway is larger than I need. (Iâve also been very lucky in a lot of ways, and I acknowledge that not everyone will be able to do these things.)