Re: actual betting: Use a basket of proxies and warning signs which you expect to happen before your relevant timeframe. For example, to bet for/against a 25% of AGI by 2025, bet whether:
For all years before 2025, a [trusted third forecaster or a trusted aggregate] will give less than 25% probability to AGI being reached in or before 2025.
Google and Microsoft remain less valuable than Apple, with the rationale that they seem to be investing more heavily in ML/AI than Apple.
Specific capabilities which one would expect to see in 2023 given AGI before 2025.
the other party changes their mind by 2024.
Compute used by the largest model will not be scaled beyond [x].
...
If you wanted to do this at scale, then the thing to do might be to create some markets for each of the potential warning signs on Augur/Gnosis next year, when the platforms will a little bit more mature. Gnosis in particular combines neatly with Kleros, a distributed jury system which might be useful to resolve some questions with a subjective component.
Re: actual betting: Use a basket of proxies and warning signs which you expect to happen before your relevant timeframe. For example, to bet for/against a 25% of AGI by 2025, bet whether:
For all years before 2025, a [trusted third forecaster or a trusted aggregate] will give less than 25% probability to AGI being reached in or before 2025.
Google and Microsoft remain less valuable than Apple, with the rationale that they seem to be investing more heavily in ML/AI than Apple.
Specific capabilities which one would expect to see in 2023 given AGI before 2025.
the other party changes their mind by 2024.
Compute used by the largest model will not be scaled beyond [x].
...
If you wanted to do this at scale, then the thing to do might be to create some markets for each of the potential warning signs on Augur/Gnosis next year, when the platforms will a little bit more mature. Gnosis in particular combines neatly with Kleros, a distributed jury system which might be useful to resolve some questions with a subjective component.