“This is weird because if the even the pessimistic numbers were accurate, Open Phil on its own could have almost wiped out malaria and an EA sympathetic org like the Gates foundation definitely could have.”
This statement is incorrect. There is no amount of money right now which could “wipe out” malaria, even a perfect vaccine rollout will reduce prevalence by under 50%. If there were even a decent chance of wiping out malaria, non-EA funders would have poured billions to make it happen.
For example Polio as of now is not a public health problem at all with only a few cases every year. But the potential benefits of eradicating it are so large that something a billion dollars a year is spent on eradication efforts.
“This is weird because if the even the pessimistic numbers were accurate, Open Phil on its own could have almost wiped out malaria and an EA sympathetic org like the Gates foundation definitely could have.”
This statement is incorrect. There is no amount of money right now which could “wipe out” malaria, even a perfect vaccine rollout will reduce prevalence by under 50%. If there were even a decent chance of wiping out malaria, non-EA funders would have poured billions to make it happen.
For example Polio as of now is not a public health problem at all with only a few cases every year. But the potential benefits of eradicating it are so large that something a billion dollars a year is spent on eradication efforts.