I guess this shows that the case won’t get through with the conservative rounding off that you applied here, so future developments of this CBA would want to go straight for the more precise approximations in order to secure a higher evaluation.
And thanks again for making this point (and to weeatquince as well). I’ve written a new paragraph emphasising a more reasonable, less conservative estimate of benefit-cost ratios. I expect it’ll probably go in the final draft, and I’ll edit the post here to include it as well (just waiting on Carl’s approval).
Re the possibility of international agreements, I agree that they can make it easier to meet various CBA thresholds, but I also note that they are notoriously hard to achieve, even when in the interests of both parties. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try, but if the CBA case relies on them then the claim that one doesn’t need to go beyond it (or beyond CBA-plus-AWTP) becomes weaker.
I think this is right (and I must admit that I don’t know that much about the mechanics and success-rates of international agreements) but one cause for optimism here is Cass Sunstein’s view about why the Montreal Protocol was such a success (see Chapter 2): cost-benefit analysis suggested that it would be in the US’s interest to implement unilaterally and that the benefit-cost ratio would be even more favourable if other countries signed on as well. In that respect, the Montreal Protocol seems akin to prospective international agreements to share the cost of GCR-reducing interventions.
Yes, I think so!
And thanks again for making this point (and to weeatquince as well). I’ve written a new paragraph emphasising a more reasonable, less conservative estimate of benefit-cost ratios. I expect it’ll probably go in the final draft, and I’ll edit the post here to include it as well (just waiting on Carl’s approval).
I think this is right (and I must admit that I don’t know that much about the mechanics and success-rates of international agreements) but one cause for optimism here is Cass Sunstein’s view about why the Montreal Protocol was such a success (see Chapter 2): cost-benefit analysis suggested that it would be in the US’s interest to implement unilaterally and that the benefit-cost ratio would be even more favourable if other countries signed on as well. In that respect, the Montreal Protocol seems akin to prospective international agreements to share the cost of GCR-reducing interventions.