I 100% agree on the point that longtermism is not a necessary argument to achieve investment in existential/GCR risk reduction (and indeed might be a distraction). We have recently published on this (here). The paper focuses on the process of National Risk Assessment (NRA). We argue: “If one takes standard government cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as the starting point, especially the domain of healthcare where cost-per-quality-adjusted-life-year is typically the currency and discount rates of around 3% are typically used, then existential risk just looks like a limiting case for CEA. The population at risk is simply all those alive at the time and the clear salience of existential risks emerges in simple consequence calculations (such as those demonstrated above) coupled with standard cost-utility metrics.” (look for my post on this paper in the Forum, as I’m about to publish it (next 1-2 days probably >> update, here’s the link).
We then turn to the question of why governments don’t see things this way, and note: “The real question then becomes, why do government NRAs and CEAs not account for the probabilities and impacts of GCRs and existential risk? Possibilities include unfamiliarity (i.e., a knowledge gap, to be solved by wider consultation), apparent intractability (i.e., a lack of policy response options, to be solved by wider consultation), conscious neglect (due to low probability or for political purposes, but surely to be authorized by wider consultation), or seeing some issues as global rather than national (typically requiring a global coordination mechanism). Most paths point toward the need for informed public and stakeholder dialog.”
We then ask how wider consultation might be effected and propose a two-way communication approach between governments and experts/populations. Noting that NRAs are based on somewhat arbitrary assumptions we propose letting the public explore alternative outcomes of the NRA process by altering assumptions. This is where the AWTP line of your argument could be included, as discount rate and time-horizon are two of the assumptions that could be explored, and seeing the magnitude of benefit/cost people might be persuaded that a little WTP for altruistic outcomes might be good.
Overall, CEA/CBA is a good approach, and NRA is a method by which it could be formalized in government processes around catastrophe (provided current shortcomings where NRA is often not connected to a capabilities analysis (solutions) are overcome).
Refuges: sometimes the interests in securing a refuge and protecting the whole population align, as in the case of island refuges, where investment in the refuge is also protecting the entire currently alive population. So refuges may not always be left of the blue box in your figure.
Thanks. I guess this relates to your point about democratically acceptable decisions of governments. If a government is choosing to neglect something (eg because its probability is low, or because they have political motivations for doing so, vested interests etc), then they should only do so if they have information suggesting the electorate has/would authorize this. Otherwise it is an undemocratic decision.
Thanks for this, great paper.
I 100% agree on the point that longtermism is not a necessary argument to achieve investment in existential/GCR risk reduction (and indeed might be a distraction). We have recently published on this (here). The paper focuses on the process of National Risk Assessment (NRA). We argue: “If one takes standard government cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as the starting point, especially the domain of healthcare where cost-per-quality-adjusted-life-year is typically the currency and discount rates of around 3% are typically used, then existential risk just looks like a limiting case for CEA. The population at risk is simply all those alive at the time and the clear salience of existential risks emerges in simple consequence calculations (such as those demonstrated above) coupled with standard cost-utility metrics.” (look for my post on this paper in the Forum, as I’m about to publish it (next 1-2 days probably >> update, here’s the link).
We then turn to the question of why governments don’t see things this way, and note: “The real question then becomes, why do government NRAs and CEAs not account for the probabilities and impacts of GCRs and existential risk? Possibilities include unfamiliarity (i.e., a knowledge gap, to be solved by wider consultation), apparent intractability (i.e., a lack of policy response options, to be solved by wider consultation), conscious neglect (due to low probability or for political purposes, but surely to be authorized by wider consultation), or seeing some issues as global rather than national (typically requiring a global coordination mechanism). Most paths point toward the need for informed public and stakeholder dialog.”
We then ask how wider consultation might be effected and propose a two-way communication approach between governments and experts/populations. Noting that NRAs are based on somewhat arbitrary assumptions we propose letting the public explore alternative outcomes of the NRA process by altering assumptions. This is where the AWTP line of your argument could be included, as discount rate and time-horizon are two of the assumptions that could be explored, and seeing the magnitude of benefit/cost people might be persuaded that a little WTP for altruistic outcomes might be good.
Overall, CEA/CBA is a good approach, and NRA is a method by which it could be formalized in government processes around catastrophe (provided current shortcomings where NRA is often not connected to a capabilities analysis (solutions) are overcome).
Refuges: sometimes the interests in securing a refuge and protecting the whole population align, as in the case of island refuges, where investment in the refuge is also protecting the entire currently alive population. So refuges may not always be left of the blue box in your figure.
Thanks for the tip! Looking forward to reading your paper.
What do you mean by this?
Thanks. I guess this relates to your point about democratically acceptable decisions of governments. If a government is choosing to neglect something (eg because its probability is low, or because they have political motivations for doing so, vested interests etc), then they should only do so if they have information suggesting the electorate has/would authorize this. Otherwise it is an undemocratic decision.