Pretty sure jackva is responding to the linked article, not just this post, as e.g. they quote footnote 25 in full.
On first point, I think that that kind of argument could be found in Jonathan B. Wiener’s work on “‘risk-superior moves’—better options that reduce multiple risks in concert.” See e.g.
On the second point, what about climate change in India-Pakistan? e.g. an event worse than the current terrible heatwave—heat stress and agriculture/economic shock leads to migration, instability, rise in tension and accidental use of nuclear weapons. The recent modelling papers indicate that would lead to ‘nuclear autumn’ and probably be a global catastrophe.
(In that case, he said that the post ignores indirect risks, which isn’t true.)
On your first point, my claim was “I have never seen anyone argue that the best way to reduce biorisk or AI is to work on climate change”. The papers you shared also do not make this argument. I’m not saying that it is conceptually impossible for working on one risk to be the best way to work on another risk. Obviously, it is possible. I am just saying it is not substantively true about climate on the one hand, and AI and bio on the other. To me, it is clearly absurd to hold that the best way to work on these problems is by working on climate change.
On your second point, I agree that climate change could be a stressor of some conflict risks in the same way that anything that is socially bad can be a stressor of conflict risks. For example, inadequate pricing of water is also a stressor of India-Pakistan conflict risk for the same reason. But this still does not show that it is literally the best possible way to reduce the risk of that conflict. It would be very surprising if it were since there is no evidence in the literature of climate change causing interstate warfare. Also, even the path from India-Pakistan conflict to long-run disaster seems extremely indirect, and permanent collapse or something like that seems extremely unlikely.
Pretty sure jackva is responding to the linked article, not just this post, as e.g. they quote footnote 25 in full.
On first point, I think that that kind of argument could be found in Jonathan B. Wiener’s work on “‘risk-superior moves’—better options that reduce multiple risks in concert.” See e.g.
Learning to Manage the Multirisk World
The Tragedy of the Uncommons: On the Politics of Apocalypse
On the second point, what about climate change in India-Pakistan? e.g. an event worse than the current terrible heatwave—heat stress and agriculture/economic shock leads to migration, instability, rise in tension and accidental use of nuclear weapons. The recent modelling papers indicate that would lead to ‘nuclear autumn’ and probably be a global catastrophe.
A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security (2020)
Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war (2022)
(In that case, he said that the post ignores indirect risks, which isn’t true.)
On your first point, my claim was “I have never seen anyone argue that the best way to reduce biorisk or AI is to work on climate change”. The papers you shared also do not make this argument. I’m not saying that it is conceptually impossible for working on one risk to be the best way to work on another risk. Obviously, it is possible. I am just saying it is not substantively true about climate on the one hand, and AI and bio on the other. To me, it is clearly absurd to hold that the best way to work on these problems is by working on climate change.
On your second point, I agree that climate change could be a stressor of some conflict risks in the same way that anything that is socially bad can be a stressor of conflict risks. For example, inadequate pricing of water is also a stressor of India-Pakistan conflict risk for the same reason. But this still does not show that it is literally the best possible way to reduce the risk of that conflict. It would be very surprising if it were since there is no evidence in the literature of climate change causing interstate warfare. Also, even the path from India-Pakistan conflict to long-run disaster seems extremely indirect, and permanent collapse or something like that seems extremely unlikely.