Warren introduced the No First Use Act (“It is the policy of the United States to not use nuclear weapons first.”) and Gillibrand is a co-sponsor.
I don’t really understand the conclusion this post is arguing for (or if indeed there is one). In particular, I didn’t spot an answer to “how can we influence the long-term future?“.
If this research seems interesting to you, CSER is currently hiring!
“Cause areas shouldn’t be tribes”
“We shouldn’t entrench existing cause areas”
“Some methods of increasing representativeness have the effect of entrenching current cause areas and making intellectual shifts harder.”
Does this mean you wouldn’t be keen on e.g. “cause-specific community liasons” who mainly talk to people with specific cause-prioritisations, maybe have some money to back projects in ‘their’ cause, etc? (I’m thinking of something analogous to an Open Philanthropy Project Program Officer )
The recent quality of posts has been absolutely stellar*. Keep it up everyone!
*interesting, varied, informative, written to be helpful/useful, rigorous, etc
Really glad to see you taking conflicts of interest so seriously!
This is incredibly valuable (and even groundbreaking) work. Well done for doing it, and for writing it up so clearly and informatively!
Thanks for this!
I personally agree that Democratic control of Congress, or even Congress and the Presidency, would be great. But I’m not sure how likely that is, or how certain that I should be about that likelihood.
Even if there was a high certainty and high likelihood, I probably still wouldn’t take that option—the increased risk for four years is just too high. As Michael_S says you get higher nuclear risk and higher pandemic risk. As I said in my post, I think Trump also raises the risks of increased global instability, increased international authoritarianism, climate change, and emerging technologies. Take climate change—we really don’t have long to fix it! We need to make significant progress by 2030 - we can’t afford to go backwards for four years.
[Writing in a personal capacity, my views are not my employer’s]
Whatever happened to EA Ventures?
This is a great idea and you’ve presented it fairly, clearly and persuasively. I’ve donated.
Peter’s question was one I asked in the previous post as well. I’m pleased with this answer, thanks Tara.
Thanks for this! Its mentioned in the post and James and Fluttershy have made the point, but I just wanted to emphasise the benefits to others of Open Philanthropy continuing to engage in public discourse. Especially as this article seems to focus mostly on the cost/benefits to Open Philanthropy itself (rather than to others) of Open Philanthropy engaging in public discourse.
The analogy of academia was used. One of the reasons academics publish is to get feedback, improve their reputation and to clarify their thinking. But another, perhaps more important, reason academics publish academic papers and popular articles is to spread knowledge.
As an organisation/individual becomes more expert and established, I agree that the benefits to itself decrease and the costs increase. But the benefit to others of their work increases. It might be argued that when one is starting out the benefits of public discourse go mostly to oneself, and when one is established the benefits go mostly to others.
So in Open Philanthropy’s case it seems clear that the benefits to itself (feedback, reputation, clarifying ideas) have decreased and the costs (time and risk) have increased. But the benefits to others of sharing knowledge have increased, as it has become more expert and better at communicating.
For example, speaking personally, I have found Open Philanthropy’s shallow investigations on Global Catastrophic Risks a very valuable resource in getting people up to speed – posts like Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence: The Philanthropic Opportunity have also been very informative and useful. I’m sure people working on global poverty would agree.
Again, just wanted to emphasise that others get a lot of benefit from Open Philanthropy continuing to engage in public discourse (in the quantity and quality at which it does so now).
Very interesting idea, and potentially really useful for the community (and me personally!).
What’s the timeline for this?
I’m presuming that the Funds would be transparent about how much money is in them, how much has been given and why—is that the case? Also as a starter, has Nick written about how much is/was in his Fund and how its been spent?
Were I working for an EA org this would be the decisive factor that would swing me, so it would be really good if we could work this out.
Giving to another org adds Gift Aid to your donation. +20%
Forgoing salary saves you and your employer National Insurance. +29%
So if you’re basic rate, is giving to your employer better value?