I agree that there is a kind of Pascallian possibility of very small probabilities of exponential growth in value going for extremely long times. If so, then advancements scale in value with v-bar and with τ. This isn’t enough to make them competitive with existential risk reduction ex ante as they are still down-weighted by the very small probability. But it is perhaps enough to cause some issues. Worse is that there is a possibility of growth in value that is faster than an exponential, and this can more than offset the very small probability. This feels very much like Pascal’s Mugging and I’m not inclined to bite the bullet and seek out or focus on outcomes like this. But nor do I have a principled answer to why not. I agree that it is probably useful to put under the label of ‘fanaticism’.
>Continued exponential growth
I agree that there is a kind of Pascallian possibility of very small probabilities of exponential growth in value going for extremely long times. If so, then advancements scale in value with v-bar and with τ. This isn’t enough to make them competitive with existential risk reduction ex ante as they are still down-weighted by the very small probability. But it is perhaps enough to cause some issues. Worse is that there is a possibility of growth in value that is faster than an exponential, and this can more than offset the very small probability. This feels very much like Pascal’s Mugging and I’m not inclined to bite the bullet and seek out or focus on outcomes like this. But nor do I have a principled answer to why not. I agree that it is probably useful to put under the label of ‘fanaticism’.