Do you have any plans to empirically validade your framework? You model the interventions as having effects which are maintained (advancements and gains) or increased (speed-ups and enhancements) across time. In contrast, as far as I can tell, the (posterior) counterfactual impact of interventions whose effects can be accurately measured, like ones in global health and development, decays to 0 as time goes by, and can be modelled as increasing the value of the world for a few years, decades or centuries at most.
To be clear, I donât think that most things are longtermist interventions with these permanent impacts (and most things arenât trying to be).
Clearly some thing have had lasting effects. e.g. there were no electrical household items before the 19th century, and now they are ubiquitous and quite possibly will be with us as long as humanity lasts. Whereas if humanity had never electrified, the present would be very different.
That said, it is also useful to ask about the counterfactuals. e.g. if Maxwell or Edison or any other pioneer hadnât made their discoveries, how different would we expect 2024 to be? In this case, it is less clear as someone else probably would have made these discoveries later. But then discoveries that build on them would have been delayed etc. I doubt that the counterfactual impact of Maxwell goes to zero until such a point as practically everything has been discovered (or everything downstream of electromagnetism). That said, it could easily have diminishing impact over time, as is typical of advancements (their impact does not scale with humanityâs duration).
But note that the paper actually doesnât claim that a particular invention or discovery acts as an advancement. It suggests it is a possible model of the longterm impacts of things like that. One reason I bring it up is that it shows that even if it was a permanent advancement, then under a wide set of circumstances, it would still be beaten by reducing existential risk. And even if attempts to advance progress really were lasting advancements, the value could be negative if they also bring forward the end time.
I would love it if there was more investigation of the empirical measurement of such lasting effects, though it is outside of my field(s).
That said, it is also useful to ask about the counterfactuals. e.g. if Maxwell or Edison or any other pioneer hadnât made their discoveries, how different would we expect 2024 to be? In this case, it is less clear as someone else probably would have made these discoveries later.
Right. I meant to question permanent â(posterior) counterfactualâ effects, which is what matters for assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions.
But then discoveries that build on them would have been delayed etc. I doubt that the counterfactual impact of Maxwell goes to zero until such a point as practically everything has been discovered (or everything downstream of electromagnetism). That said, it could easily have diminishing impact over time, as is typical of advancements (their impact does not scale with humanityâs duration).
Why would the posterior counterfactual impact not go to practically 0 after a few decades or centuries? You seem to be confident this is not the case (âI [Toby] doubtâ), so I would appreciate it if you could elaborate.
I would love it if there was more investigation of the empirical measurement of such lasting effects, though it is outside of my field(s).
Hi Toby,
Do you have any plans to empirically validade your framework? You model the interventions as having effects which are maintained (advancements and gains) or increased (speed-ups and enhancements) across time. In contrast, as far as I can tell, the (posterior) counterfactual impact of interventions whose effects can be accurately measured, like ones in global health and development, decays to 0 as time goes by, and can be modelled as increasing the value of the world for a few years, decades or centuries at most.
To be clear, I donât think that most things are longtermist interventions with these permanent impacts (and most things arenât trying to be).
Clearly some thing have had lasting effects. e.g. there were no electrical household items before the 19th century, and now they are ubiquitous and quite possibly will be with us as long as humanity lasts. Whereas if humanity had never electrified, the present would be very different.
That said, it is also useful to ask about the counterfactuals. e.g. if Maxwell or Edison or any other pioneer hadnât made their discoveries, how different would we expect 2024 to be? In this case, it is less clear as someone else probably would have made these discoveries later. But then discoveries that build on them would have been delayed etc. I doubt that the counterfactual impact of Maxwell goes to zero until such a point as practically everything has been discovered (or everything downstream of electromagnetism). That said, it could easily have diminishing impact over time, as is typical of advancements (their impact does not scale with humanityâs duration).
But note that the paper actually doesnât claim that a particular invention or discovery acts as an advancement. It suggests it is a possible model of the longterm impacts of things like that. One reason I bring it up is that it shows that even if it was a permanent advancement, then under a wide set of circumstances, it would still be beaten by reducing existential risk. And even if attempts to advance progress really were lasting advancements, the value could be negative if they also bring forward the end time.
I would love it if there was more investigation of the empirical measurement of such lasting effects, though it is outside of my field(s).
Thanks for following up, Toby!
Right. I meant to question permanent â(posterior) counterfactualâ effects, which is what matters for assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions.
Why would the posterior counterfactual impact not go to practically 0 after a few decades or centuries? You seem to be confident this is not the case (âI [Toby] doubtâ), so I would appreciate it if you could elaborate.
Nice to know!