The idea is that advancing overall progress by a year means getting a year ahead on social progress, political progress, moral progress, scientific progress, and of course, technological progress. Given that our progress in these is the result of so many people’s work, it seems very hard to me for a small group to lead to changes that improve that by a whole year (even over one’s lifetime). Whereas a small group leading to changes that lead to the neglected area of existential risk reduction of 0.0001% seems a lot more plausible to me — in fact, I’d guess we’ve already achieved that.
Thanks!
The idea is that advancing overall progress by a year means getting a year ahead on social progress, political progress, moral progress, scientific progress, and of course, technological progress. Given that our progress in these is the result of so many people’s work, it seems very hard to me for a small group to lead to changes that improve that by a whole year (even over one’s lifetime). Whereas a small group leading to changes that lead to the neglected area of existential risk reduction of 0.0001% seems a lot more plausible to me — in fact, I’d guess we’ve already achieved that.