You asked for a “rough fermi estimate of the trade-offs”, I gave you a list of potential trade-offs.
If we’re willing to make decisions with logic like, “while genetically modifying unnaturally fast-growing chickens in factory farms would increase the pain of each one, perhaps the math works out so that there’s less pain overall”, I feel like adding considerations like, “this intervention will also make meat more expensive, which will reduce use” is a pretty vanilla consideration.
No, those are two totally separate types of considerations? In one you are directly aiming to work against the goals of someone else in a zero-sum fashion, the other one is just a normal prediction about what will actually happen?
You really should have very different norms about how you are dealing with adversarial considerations and how you are dealing with normal causal/environmental considerations. I don’t care about calling them “vanilla” or not, I think we should generally have a high prior against arguments of the form “X is bad, Y is hurting X, therefore Y is good”.
I feel like that’s pretty unfair.
You asked for a “rough fermi estimate of the trade-offs”, I gave you a list of potential trade-offs.
If we’re willing to make decisions with logic like, “while genetically modifying unnaturally fast-growing chickens in factory farms would increase the pain of each one, perhaps the math works out so that there’s less pain overall”, I feel like adding considerations like, “this intervention will also make meat more expensive, which will reduce use” is a pretty vanilla consideration.
No, those are two totally separate types of considerations? In one you are directly aiming to work against the goals of someone else in a zero-sum fashion, the other one is just a normal prediction about what will actually happen?
You really should have very different norms about how you are dealing with adversarial considerations and how you are dealing with normal causal/environmental considerations. I don’t care about calling them “vanilla” or not, I think we should generally have a high prior against arguments of the form “X is bad, Y is hurting X, therefore Y is good”.