I made a significant mistake in this. I calculated the sensitivity analysis for Buttigieg’s electability incorrectly and this underestimated the amount by which his position in the nomination scoring can climb. With recent boosts in his popularity and prediction market expectations since CSS5 was published, Buttigieg could be a viable recommendation. I will review this stuff and put out CSS6 fairly quickly.
I realize this is a bit late, but all of the 1drive links say the item “might not exist or is no longer available”, then ask to sign in to a Microsoft account.
Sorry for my own lateness. I have removed all old versions. The most recent PDF report can be found here (I am keeping this as a permanent link): https://1drv.ms/b/s!At2KcPiXB5rkyABaEsATaMrRDxwj It contains permanent links to the excel model, public draft etc. Now when I make a new version, I save over the previous version while keeping the same link.
I made a significant mistake in this. I calculated the sensitivity analysis for Buttigieg’s electability incorrectly and this underestimated the amount by which his position in the nomination scoring can climb. With recent boosts in his popularity and prediction market expectations since CSS5 was published, Buttigieg could be a viable recommendation. I will review this stuff and put out CSS6 fairly quickly.
Here is CSS6: https://1drv.ms/b/s!At2KcPiXB5rkvg3MH6izzguUYpuR
I realize this is a bit late, but all of the 1drive links say the item “might not exist or is no longer available”, then ask to sign in to a Microsoft account.
Sorry for my own lateness. I have removed all old versions. The most recent PDF report can be found here (I am keeping this as a permanent link): https://1drv.ms/b/s!At2KcPiXB5rkyABaEsATaMrRDxwj It contains permanent links to the excel model, public draft etc. Now when I make a new version, I save over the previous version while keeping the same link.