As a superforecaster, I’m going to strongly agree with “sometimes superforecasters don’t seem to be trying as much as they could,” and they aren’t incentivized to do deep dives into every question.
I’d say they are individually somewhere between metaculus and a more ideal group, which Samovetseky seems to be close to, but I’m not an insider, and have limited knowledge of how you manage epistemic issues like independent elicitation before discussion. One thing Samovestsky does not have, unfortunately, is the type of more sophisticated algorithm to aggregates that are used by Metaculus and GJ, nor the same level of diversity as either—though overall I see those as less important than more effort by properly calibrated forecasters.
As a superforecaster, I’m going to strongly agree with “sometimes superforecasters don’t seem to be trying as much as they could,” and they aren’t incentivized to do deep dives into every question.
I’d say they are individually somewhere between metaculus and a more ideal group, which Samovetseky seems to be close to, but I’m not an insider, and have limited knowledge of how you manage epistemic issues like independent elicitation before discussion. One thing Samovestsky does not have, unfortunately, is the type of more sophisticated algorithm to aggregates that are used by Metaculus and GJ, nor the same level of diversity as either—though overall I see those as less important than more effort by properly calibrated forecasters.