My impression is wide ranges are pretty common on questions as difficult/complex as these. I think large differences can often come from very-hard-to-resolve deep disagreements in intuitions, as we’ve seen with the MIRI conversations.
If the range was too small on this type of question I might be worried about herding/anchoring. In a few cases there are 1-2 outlier forecasts on each end and the rest are relatively close together.
My impression is wide ranges are pretty common on questions as difficult/complex as these. I think large differences can often come from very-hard-to-resolve deep disagreements in intuitions, as we’ve seen with the MIRI conversations.
If the range was too small on this type of question I might be worried about herding/anchoring. In a few cases there are 1-2 outlier forecasts on each end and the rest are relatively close together.
It could be cool to see the individual forecasts presented in a histogram.