I think it’s fair to interpret the Covid question to some extent as superforecasters not trying, but I’m confused about how you seem to be attributing little of it to prediction error? It could be a combination of both.
Good point. I over-updated on my feeling of “this particular question felt so easy at the time” so that I couldn’t imagine why anyone who puts serious time into it would get it badly wrong.
However, on reflection, I think it’s most plausible that different types of information were salient to different people, which could have caused superforecasters to make prediction errors even if they were trying seriously. (Specifically, the question felt easy to me because I happened to have a lot of detailed info on the UK situation, which presented one of the best available examples to use for forming a reference class.)
You’re right that I essentially gave even more evidence for the claim you were making.
Good point. I over-updated on my feeling of “this particular question felt so easy at the time” so that I couldn’t imagine why anyone who puts serious time into it would get it badly wrong.
However, on reflection, I think it’s most plausible that different types of information were salient to different people, which could have caused superforecasters to make prediction errors even if they were trying seriously. (Specifically, the question felt easy to me because I happened to have a lot of detailed info on the UK situation, which presented one of the best available examples to use for forming a reference class.)
You’re right that I essentially gave even more evidence for the claim you were making.