Bottom line up front: I think itād be best for longtermists to default to using more inclusive term āauthoritarianismā rather than ātotalitarianismā, except when a person really has a specific reason to focus on totalitarianism specifically.
I have the impression that EAs/ālongtermists have often focused more on ātotalitarianismā than on āauthoritarianismā, or have used the terms as if they were somewhat interchangeable. (E.g., I think I did both of those things myself in the past.)
But my understanding is that political scientists typically consider totalitarianism to be a relatively extreme subtype of authoritarianism (see, e.g., Wikipedia). And itās not obvious to me that, from a longtermist perspective, totalitarianism is a bigger issue than other types of authoritarian regime. (Essentially, Iād guess that totalitarianism would have worse effects than other types of authoritarianism, but that itās less likely to arise in the first place.)
To provide a bit more of a sense of what I mean and why I say this, hereās a relevant section of a research agenda I recently drafted:
Longtermism-relevant typology and harms of authoritarianism
What is the most useful way for longtermists to carve up the space of possible types of authoritarian political systems (or perhaps political systems more broadly, or political systems other than full liberal democracies)? What terms should we be using?
Which types of authoritarian political system should we be most concerned about?
What are the main ways in which each type of authoritarian political system could reduce (or increase) the expected value of the long-term future?
What are the main pathways by which each type of authoritarian political system could reduce (or increase) the expected value of the long-term future?
E.g., increasing the rate or severity of armed conflict; reducing the chance that humanity has a successful long reflection; increasing the chances of an unrecoverable dystopia.
All things considered, how large does the existential risk from global, stable authoritarianism seem to be?
All things considered, how large of an existential risk factor does authoritarianism seem to be?
Bottom line up front: I think itād be best for longtermists to default to using more inclusive term āauthoritarianismā rather than ātotalitarianismā, except when a person really has a specific reason to focus on totalitarianism specifically.
I have the impression that EAs/ālongtermists have often focused more on ātotalitarianismā than on āauthoritarianismā, or have used the terms as if they were somewhat interchangeable. (E.g., I think I did both of those things myself in the past.)
But my understanding is that political scientists typically consider totalitarianism to be a relatively extreme subtype of authoritarianism (see, e.g., Wikipedia). And itās not obvious to me that, from a longtermist perspective, totalitarianism is a bigger issue than other types of authoritarian regime. (Essentially, Iād guess that totalitarianism would have worse effects than other types of authoritarianism, but that itās less likely to arise in the first place.)
To provide a bit more of a sense of what I mean and why I say this, hereās a relevant section of a research agenda I recently drafted:
Longtermism-relevant typology and harms of authoritarianism
What is the most useful way for longtermists to carve up the space of possible types of authoritarian political systems (or perhaps political systems more broadly, or political systems other than full liberal democracies)? What terms should we be using?
Which types of authoritarian political system should we be most concerned about?
What are the main ways in which each type of authoritarian political system could reduce (or increase) the expected value of the long-term future?
What are the main pathways by which each type of authoritarian political system could reduce (or increase) the expected value of the long-term future?
E.g., increasing the rate or severity of armed conflict; reducing the chance that humanity has a successful long reflection; increasing the chances of an unrecoverable dystopia.
All things considered, how large does the existential risk from global, stable authoritarianism seem to be?
All things considered, how large of an existential risk factor does authoritarianism seem to be?