Movement collapse scenarios—Rebecca Baron
Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples. - NunoSempere
What the EA community can learn from the rise of the neoliberals—Kerry Vaughan
How valuable is movement growth? - Owen Cotton-Barratt (and I think this is sort-of a summary of that article)
Long-Term Influence and Movement Growth: Two Historical Case Studies—Aron Vallinder, 2018
Some of the Sentience Institute’s research, such as its “social movement case studies”* and the post How tractable is changing the course of history?
A Framework for Assessing the Potential of EA Development in Emerging Locations* - jahying
EA considerations regarding increasing political polarization—Alfred Dreyfus, 2020
Hard-to-reverse decisions destroy option value—Schubert & Garfinkel, 2017
These aren’t quite “EA analyses”, but Slate Star Codex has several relevant book reviews and other posts, such as:
It appears Animal Charity Evaluators did relevant research, but I haven’t read it, they described it as having been “of variable quality”, and they’ve discontinued it.
In this comment, Pablo Stafforini refers to some relevant work that sounds like it’s non-public.
See also my collection of work on value drift, and my list of some history topics it might be very valuable to investigate.
*Asterisks indicate I haven’t read that source myself, and thus that the source might not actually be a good fit for this list.
I intend to add to this list over time. If you know of other relevant work, please mention it in a comment.
Also, I’m aware that there are a lot of non-EA analyses of these topics. The reasons I’m collecting only EA analyses here are that:
their precise focuses or methodologies may be more relevant to other EAs than would be the case with non-EA analyses
links to non-EA work can be found in most of the things I list here
I’d guess that many collections of non-EA analyses of these topics already exist (e.g., in reference lists)
I have a list here that has some overlap but also some new things: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KyVgBuq_X95Hn6LrgCVj2DTiNHQXrPUJse-tlo8-CEM/edit#
That looks very helpful—thanks for sharing it here!